ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST...... As it mentioned earlier in a BLOG post... After the potential events of DEC 29-30 and JAN 2 ... EITHER of which could range from light to moderate to significant winter weather... the MJO impulse moves into phase 4 .5..6. This shows up on all of the MJO forecast models and the climo history of Phase 4 5 6 in JAN is one which features above normal temperatures east the Mississippi River. So assuming that this is correct ...as I stated in the blog ...the middle or second half of January could be fairly mild. But that is not the end of the story. Using the same data we begin to see some other possibilities. This is the current long range projection from Kyle Macritchie and the University of Albany. SEE IMAGE #1. I do have to say that although are times I have not understood his MJO model projections they have repeatedly proven to be more right than any other. For example a few weeks ago when most of the other MJO forecast models showed the MJO... Getting stuck in the neutral zone and not having any impact on the weather patterns over North America... his MJO model projections were the onlyMJO models that showed the MJO would move into Phase 4 5 and 6 in mid January. At the time I was looking at his data and saying... NO WAY. Now its.... Way. That being said his new data shows some interesting developments for winter weather lovers. The same MJO model projections are now showing the MJO not only holding in intensity or increasing but moving into Phase 7 or 8 by late January and phase 8 in February. These are some darn good winter weather patterns for the central and eastern portions of the country.!! The SECOND image shows you what the overall Jetstream pattern look like in late January... ASSUMING the MJO is strong and in Phase 7. This does NOT suck. The pattern clearly shows a strong Greenland block (-NAO) a split flow pattern.... and strong RIDGE over Northwest Canada Supply and the cold air. I have drawn in the areas of low pressure in this kind of pattern.
Posted on: Thu, 25 Dec 2014 19:13:47 +0000
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