ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 0200 Z 5 MAR 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 26.00 N 94.00 W ..THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N60W...TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1016 MB LOW CENTER TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. THE FRONT BECOMES WARM FROM 26N87W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N93W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 17N96W TO 28N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 32N60W 25N74W...AND 27N82W 19N95W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/ ICAO STATIONS. ONLY STATION KIPN IS NOT REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING...BUT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND FOG. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA... AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N82W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92.5W...THEN A COLD FRONT TO NEAR 20N97W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 87W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS NEAR 10N76W...ACROSS JAMAICA AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... AND BEYOND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W IN PANAMA TO 10N86W AT THE PANAMA COAST...BEYOND 8N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF HONDURAS...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA... ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUERTO PLATA...AND IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD... WITH THE SAME RIDGE...JUST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN ITS ORIENTATION. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THAT ENDS NEAR 22N61W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS AT LEAST 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 07:06:29 +0000
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