ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 2300Z 26 MAR 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SUBTLE RIDGING IS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 28N94W. THIS ENERGY ALOFT IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 21N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED GENERALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...W OF 90W...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS THE RESULTING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO 21N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 20N87W. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WEAKENING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W BY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES AND CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENDING FROM 24N70W SW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF 20N THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
Posted on: Wed, 26 Mar 2014 21:59:02 +0000
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