ANOTHER COLD AND SNOWY WINTER? About a week ago I showed you the Farmers Almanac version of the upcoming winter season which looked pretty miserable if youre not a big fan of the snow and cold. The reason for the bulk of these predictions is based off of the strength and location of the upcoming El Nino. Below is a series of images from the Climate Prediction Center that shows temperature and snowfall trends during the winter months of December, January and February during a weak, west-central based El Nino. The first image below shows the developing El Nino which stays in the weak to slightly moderate range (between +0.5 and +1.5). The first column (vertically) in the second image below shows how the temperatures react across the country compared to normal during this pattern. You can clearly see the cold east of the Mississippi River. The first picture in the third image below shows how much snow is expected. Portions of the Mid Atlantic sit anywhere from 120% to 170% above normal. So this is why youre hearing about the cold and snowy winter ideas right now. A lot of it is based off of the developing El Nino. However, its important to understand how the El Nino works. First of all if the El Nino never even develops then this pattern will not materialize. So lets assume for a second it develops. It then has to stay in that weak to slightly moderate range. If the El Nino becomes stronger than anticipated the southern branch of the Jetstream becomes too active and mild air overwhelms the pattern. The predicted west-central based warming of the El Nino is important because it promotes blocking near Greenland which in turn forces arctic air south in to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. If this El Nino shifts and becomes more eastern based the pattern changes along with it. So theres a lot going on here. This cold and snowy idea could be correct, but it could also be wrong. The safe play right now is to wait until October or November to make the call and see how things are evolving. I will continue to update you over the next few months on developments about the upcoming winter season as I get them.
Posted on: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 11:14:25 +0000
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