AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 500 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND A STOUT LLJ. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. DECIDED TO LEAN WAY CLOSER TO THE COOLER ECM MOS WITH LITTLE MIXING ANTICIPATED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WESTERN N TX AHEAD OF A BROADENING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADAS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR SW ZONES TOMORROW EVENING AND SHIFT NEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL/W CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WED. SOME INSTABILITY AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SW/S...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF I35 WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST CONVECTION WED NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE RED RIVER NEAR S/SE OK. THE GFS SUGGESTS PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN OK. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES OVER I35. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR ZONES IN THE SE QUARTER OF OUR FA IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I40. WILL PASS THIS ONTO THE NEXT SHIFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...AND MOST OF THE MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS SLIGHTLY TO WARM (EXCEPTION IS THE ECM FOR SOME LOCATIONS) GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES AND SWINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AMPLIFYING THE NW MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SW CANADA THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER HEAD BY SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 65 70 64 / 20 40 80 60 HOBART OK 75 65 73 61 / 20 30 60 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 77 65 75 66 / 20 60 70 50 GAGE OK 70 61 73 49 / 10 20 20 20 PONCA CITY OK 74 66 73 62 / 30 50 80 70 DURANT OK 75 67 70 68 / 40 40 80 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/03
Posted on: Tue, 29 Oct 2013 11:06:16 +0000
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