AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MONSOON MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS THE REMNANTS FROM ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... IT WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN THE DESERTS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE STORMS STAYED JUST EAST OF THE SAN DIEGO/IMPERIAL COUNTY BORDER. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. ALONG THE COAST...LOW CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN AGAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON AS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ESPECIALLY IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...INCLUDING OVER THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AT OVER 2 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOME WEAK E SURFACE WINDS PUSHING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AS WELL AS SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONES BETWEEN THE EAST FLOW AND SEA BREEZE SET UP. THE ONE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE END UP GETTING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF STRONG SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MTNS/DESERTS. MINOR WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US EXPANDS WESTWARD. MARINE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST OF BAJA. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE...SO THE DETAILS ON WHERE OR WHEN STRONGER CONVECTION COULD OCCUR IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 06:01:36 +0000
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