AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 405 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 .DISCUSSION... GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA MOVES EWD. WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE TODAY...AND THIS WILL LAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD JUST OFF THE TX/LA GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 90F TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SEWD TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BE ENTERING SE OK BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE SFC FRONTS WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE DURATION OF POPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR QPF COVERAGE/DURATION COMPARED TO THE NAM...LIKELY BECAUSE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS IS ALSO HINTING AT BRINGING IN ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE NAM IN ENDING POPS BY 06Z MONDAY SINCE THERE WILL ONLY BE MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH SHOULD BE SE OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PACKAGE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL COME TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SRN CONUS. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THEIR RISE UPWARD WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK...BY NEXT WEEKEND. /09/ && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 09/12Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WITH BASES BTWN 4 AND 5 KFT... DISSIPATING AROUND 09/00Z. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AFTER 09/08Z CONTINUING THROUGH 09/12Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. ALSO...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. /14/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 70 91 72 93 / 0 10 30 20 10 MLU 86 71 89 71 92 / 0 10 30 20 10 DEQ 85 67 87 69 92 / 0 20 30 10 10 TXK 85 69 88 71 92 / 0 20 30 10 10 ELD 86 70 88 69 91 / 0 10 30 20 10 TYR 87 70 89 73 92 / 0 10 30 10 10 GGG 87 69 89 72 93 / 0 10 30 20 10 LFK 89 70 91 73 93 / 0 10 30 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/14
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 09:22:06 +0000
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