AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241004Z - 241130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO S-CNTRL IND. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB. KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775 37298827 37348860 37558889
Posted on: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 10:05:44 +0000
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