AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...SWRN - TopicsExpress

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011856Z - 012130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER SRN FRINGES STL AREA...HOWEVER INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE EWD INTO IL. SVR POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...COMPLEX SFC MESOANALYSIS FEATURES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM EARLIER/MORNING MCS OVER WRN/CENTRAL MO -- ARCHING FROM N-CENTRAL MO THROUGH STL AREA THEN SSWWD OVER ERN OZARKS AND NRN AR. WEAK SFC LOW WAS EVIDENT ALONG BOUNDARY INVOF STL...WITH TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS IL...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO AND 20-30 NM N OF I-70. BOUNDARY AND RELATED ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATION SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO SRN IL AND DECELERATE. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BETWEEN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO W...AND PERSISTENT AREA OF STG INSOLATION OVER MS RIVER AREA AND IL...ALSO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGIME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE JUXTAPOSED FEATURES WILL IMPINGE ON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS ERN IL...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH RISK OF SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL SVR HAIL. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F AND DEW POINTS COMMONLY MID-70S...YIELDING NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG LOCATED S OF WHERE TROUGH AND SEPARATE DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY MERGE IN EASTERN IL...AND N OF OUTFLOW FROM MID-SOUTH CONVECTION. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST...LIMITING OVERALL ORGANIZATION UNLESS SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPS TO FOSTER FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL FORCED ASCENT AND GREATER DENSITY/COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT. ..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 09/01/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38108998 39029006 39568805 38658731 37808805 38108998

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