AXNT20 KNHC 130551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N34W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 7N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 RADIUS OF 12.5N37W. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N59W TO 10N60W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE TO THE E OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING THE WAVE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-16N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS CONVERTED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 13/0000 UTC. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W ACROSS HAITI TO 12N75W. AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER HISPANIOLA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N24W 12N32W THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 7N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N47W TO 9N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 29W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO GEORGIA COVERING THE NW GULF. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO 17N93W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S GULF S OF 23N W OF 82W AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 23N E OF 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH OVER PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE E GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NE GULF COAST SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N W OF 77W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N78W CROSSING COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 76W-85W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WED NIGHT MOVING N OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT DISSIPATING BY TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER E CARIBBEAN SAT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER HAITI AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E WED DECREASING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SAT WHEN INCREASE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN. THERE STILL REMAINS THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W TO OVER N FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 32N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 23N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-62W AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 62W-65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N43W AND A 1025 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST N OF 20N E OF 30W WITH A MODERATE SWATH WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM 23N30W TO 14N47W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW
Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 06:20:29 +0000
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