Advance copy of the article. Watch out for serialized assessment of the May 13, 2013 elections. The post-election assessment report may not be available elsewhere. This article is out of press on Monday, May 10, Grab a copy to know that while election in Capiz was peaceful, it was however not honest and credible. The Capiz Times Point & Counterpoint Is 60-40 Fraudulent Scheme for Real? Virgilio Clavel The allegation of a 60-30-10 or 60-40 fraudulent scheme may be plausible after all. Although no hard evidence is still available, the electoral data in many provinces reinforce the suspicion that the 60-40 voting pattern was statistically an anomalous phenomenon. Generally, voting pattern nationwide would not drift to a normal curve trend, considering that there are some strong provincial turfs controlled by an opposition, more likely the United nationalist Alliance (UNA) or National Unity Party (NUP). Typical cases in Manila City, the provinces of Cavite, Pampanga, Bataan and Ilocos Norte, as well as in Capiz, particularly the the Municipality of Mambusao and the first Congressional district are glaring incidents that the 60-40 voting pattern can not always statistically apply. Let me cite certain election data in Capiz. On May15 this year, the Provincial 1st District Certificate of Canvass disclosed the actual votes obtained -- Almalbis, 91,248; Billones, 76,850; Magallanes, 68,567; Ignacio, 68,013; and Martin, 59,495. I was inside the Capiz Hall of Governors, venue of the provincial canvassing, when these Liberal Party’s (LP) candidates were proclaimed by Atty. Elizabeth Doronilla, provincial Comelec registrar. Three days later, on May 18, the Comelec national website showed the following discrepancy: Almalbis, 80,287, Billones, 68,089; Magallanes, 61,463; Ignacio, 60820; and Martin, 51,971. The difference in votes between said Certificate and the Website is -- 10,961; 8,761; 7,104; 7,193 and 7,524. The average of these differences is 8,308.60 votes, 11.0 % of the votes actually cast. Nasaan ba napunta ang kulang na boto na hindi naisama sa National Comelec Website? The transmission of election result, applying Comelec rules, normally goes this way: from the municipality/city Board of Canvassers (M/CBOCs) to the Provincial Board of Canvassers (PBOC) and finally to the National Board of Canvassers (NBC). What was dubious in the source-vote results above is: From what source did the National Comelec Website get its transmission data? From the PBOCs or the C/MBOCs? As the records posted in aforesaid website suggest, the NBCs data could not have been taken from the PBOC. The combined or summation of mean of LP’s and UNA’s straight voting propensity (64,526 and 35,937 votes respectively), would yield a 100,463 votes, approximately 27,921 votes short of the cumulative votes for congressional candidates (source, Comelec National Website). Moreover, the results of the mayoralty contest in Roxas City also bolster the discourse that the 60-40 voting pattern can hardly exist in hotly contested areas involving, as it does, local elective positions. In the evening of May 14 – canvassing still incomplete – more than 10,000 voters either failed or were unable to cast their vote in half of the forty-seven (47) barangays covered. By simplify adding the official final votes of Celino at 34,672 and Bermejo at 33,081, the sum is just 67,753 votes. If we add that 10,000 + uncast votes to 67,753, this sum total of 77,753 votes actually exceeds the number of voters who actually voted by almost 2,281 votes. Where did those excess votes come from? With May 14 as the threshold timeline, this computation presumes a 100% voting turn-out which is statistically untenable. In other 20 barangays, there were yet uncast votes varying in numbers such as 600 +, 300 +, etc. The 89.77% voting turn-out, using the mayoralty contest data, complicates the election result in Capiz. It’s quite an extremely high during the last 60 years. The remaining 10.23 % of 75,425 votes yields 7,720 votes, way below the 10,000 votes noted as of may 14. Stated plainly, at least more than 2,380 padded votes were included in the actual votes cast on May 13, voting closing at 7:00 p.m. of the same day. In fine, while there is reasonable ground to believe the occurrence of 60-40 fraudulent plot at the national and local contests, the voting turn-out pattern in Capiz paradoxically complements what could have been a machine-generated sham! Public interest, in its highest expression, demands resort to the official ballot – the best evidence of the true will of the people (Lagumbay vs. Comelec, 16 SCRA; Moguis jr. vs. CA & Bisnar, G.R. L-66547, May 7, 1985; Dayo vs. Comelec, 199 SCRA, 452-453; Lerias vs. HRET, 202 SCRA, 823-825; Alfonso vs. Comelec, 232 SCRA; Tatlonghari vs. Comelec, 199 SCRA; Benito vs. Comelec, 235 SCRA 441; Ibasco vs. Ilao, G.R. No. 17512, dec. 29, 1960; Lacson vs. Comelec, G.R. L-16261, dec. 28, 1951; Aguam vs. Comelec, G.R. L-28955, May 29, 1968; Agbayani vs. Comelec, 186 SCRA 484; and 114 SCRA).
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 01:07:20 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015