Almost 20 years ago, my cousin urged me to get a job with Iridium. Investors were sure that dedicated satellite phone technology was going to make them a huge return, and so they spent $5 billion to put a bunch of satellites in orbit for this purpose. At the same time, planners were trying to figure out how all those millions in the third world would get phone service. The infrastructure cost to put up all those telephone poles was daunting. Who would pay? It seemed hopeless. What neither group saw coming was the fact that other investors would fund companies that put up cell towers all over the third world and cellular technology would become so affordable that poor people could afford a handset. Iridium filed for bankruptcy in 1999 and no one is worried about putting up telephone polls... But now theyre worried about internet access- and wholl control it. Will it be the giant mega-corps?!? Or Big Government?!? Which reminds me of satellite radio. Sirius launched in 1999. Howard Stern went live exclusively on Sirius in 2005, making him a very wealthy man and taking millions of dollars of ad revenue with him. I remember thinking Wont the same thing happen to satellite radio that happened to satellite phones? Wont you be able to play whatever you want through local data connections? I figured youd be able to save all music ever recorded in your radio, and maybe live stuff would have to be downloaded and listened to later. I didnt realize that youd be able to have access to all content right through your handheld computer (smartphone). I think of this whenever I hear people thinking about technology through todays assumptions. Things have changed radically in just a few years, and they will change again. Maybe the next TOR or social network will be sent through handheld devices, bypassing the internet entirely. Maybe handhelds will be the next cell towers...
Posted on: Sun, 01 Jun 2014 14:48:49 +0000
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