An Economy-Watcher’s Guide to Jobs Data: Hiring Breadth, Income By Shobhana Chandra Jul 3, 2014 Here’s what to look when the Labor Department releases the June U.S. employment report today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. -- Payrolls and the jobless rate: The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists projects employers added 215,000 workers last month after a 217,000 gain in May. It would mark the fifth consecutive month of payroll gains in excess of 200,000 -- the first time that’s happened since a similar stretch ended in January 2000. The jobless rate is projected to hold at an almost six-year low of 6.3 percent. -- “If you’re growing at 200,000 jobs per month on a sustained basis, that’s fine,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “That’s a good number, that’s a healthy number -- particularly given labor force dynamics. The labor force is not growing anywhere close to that. And that’s going to be more than enough to continue lowering the jobless rate over time.” -- “The risk at this point is that the unemployment rate falls more, and faster, than not only the consensus but more importantly than the Federal Reserve’s central tendency expects,” he said. -- Central bank policy makers are “paying much more attention to the unemployment rate than to GDP,” he said. “So if the unemployment rate has scope to go down more, and go down faster, then that’s going to present a challenge, particularly to bond-market investors, because it means there’s a re-pricing in order down the road, meaning that the yields go higher.”
Posted on: Thu, 03 Jul 2014 06:54:17 +0000
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