An observation. IMO: Once again the weather forecasts left much to be desired this past week. Not sure of the exact cause but certain climate change is a big factor. My career was spent in the construction industry where accurate forecasts play a huge role in the success or failure of timelines which can be crucial to all projects. From the mid seventies forward a large portion of my success was derived from my scheduling abilities which meant I watched and studied the evolution of weather forecasting and reading between the lines as well as noting which sources were reliable and which were not. Cable television, with the weather channel was a huge leap forward. Accurate weather forecasts went from 24hrs to 72 hrs to 5 to seven day forecasts that were highly accurate and a great help in scheduling. I may be wrong or it may be only be in my forecast area but things have changed. Over the last ten to 12 years and notably in the last 3 years it seems as if the accuracy of the lead time portion has greatly diminished. If I were still scheduling I would no longer bank on any forecast of more than 72 hours without some heavy time invested in several indicators and/or contingency plans for all possibilities. It always annoyed me when others used the phrase its not rocket science when planning schedules for large intricate construction projects. I do not know nor wish to know the exact number of variables required to accurately schedule a custom rocket launch. Whether to the moon and back or merely to traverse a set distance and impact within a designated target area. However; I would be surprised if successful completion of any other endeavor of man approaches so closely that number required as a large construction project.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 13:30:26 +0000
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