Analysis of Mumbai races (Sunday, November 24, 2013) by Prakash Gosavi First race @ 1.30 pm The Kiara Plate (Class IV, 20-46; 1200m) At first glance, this looks like a tricky race heading for a close finish with National Pride, Sombrero and Stolen Relic all looking capable to generate the kind of speed required to win this six-furlong sprint, and perhaps Matrioshka, who may now relish the longer Mahalaxmi stretch after the kind of runs she put in at Pune. But when you look at Sombreros last victory, and note the kind of fitness and form he exhibited when gaining that maiden victory at the age of four, and then you go ahead and check out his mock race (Oct 27) with some of the classier horses, you wonder if anyone in his right mind can take a position against him. However, I will still stay out of this race for a different reason. Any horse who exposes his form through the kind of coup that Sombrero landed for the connections does not attract me as a bet next time if he opens as a hot favourite. This rule of thumb has saved some precious money for me in the past, though in this particular case, I feel I would be missing some profits by staying out. Selections: Sombrero 1, Stolen Relic 2, National Pride 3. Recommended as bet: None Second race @ 2 pm The Vallabhdas H Adwalia Trophy (Class IV, 20-46; 1800m) I neither understand nor can I try to venture a guess as to who is better among the trio of Word Of Honour, Venus Marina and First And Only One. I will wait for the race to be run to get enlightened. Selections: First And Only One 1, Venus Marina 2, Word Of Honour 3. Recommended as bet: None Third race @ 2.30 pm The Municipal Commissioners Trophy (Class III, 40-66; 1600m) Highraz, who never lived up to the promise of her debut victory, may be fancied very strongly here. However, she hasnt really given any hit of improving form or condition even in her last run when she received good support. I feel that should make this race reasonably open, with Analeah (who was not at all disgraced in losing to a very good horse like Way Out) deserving the top billing ahead of Montreal (who is bidding for a hat-trick). Selections: Analeah 1, Highraz 2, Montreal 3. Recommended as bet: None Fourth race @ 3 pm The Algeciras Plate (Class II, 60-86; 1400m) Keukenhof (Dynamos conqueror last time) is, undetstandably, disadvantageously placed now, but can still run a decent race; Celtic King, who finished ahead of all except winner Jeremiah and runner up Circle Of Life in the Nanoli Pune Derby, may be on the upgrade as far as form is concenrned; and Falco Nero, though he may lack the kind of speed to win a seven-furlong race at this level, is the only horse in this field to have won in this class. And then there is Bombardier who had finished ahead of Dynamo when they last faced each other in the 1,600m, SA Poonawalla Million. Still, I very strongly feel that Dynamos last losing run was the best of his career so far. And more important, for reasons which would be too lengthy—and perhaps too technical—to engage on this page, that run makes a very strong case in his favour because he is going over the same trip (1,400m) today. Therefore despite twice losing money on Dynamo, like an incorrigible optimist, I am going to support Dynamo once again today, though I dont want you to suffer the same fate if it turns out to be a blunder. Selections: Dynamo 1, Celtic King 2, Keukenhof 3. Recommended as bet: None Fifth race @ 3.30 pm The Seth Ramnath Daga Trophy (Class I, 80 & upwards; 1200m) Deja Vu, who improved well despite racing relatively wide on the Pune racetrack with a short straight, can now show dramatic improvement over the longer Mahalaxmi homestretch, and looks capable of surprising his speedy rivals like Monza and Dancing Phoenix. Selections: Deja Vu 1, Monza 2, Dancing Phoenix 3. Recommended as bet: None Sixth race @ 4 pm The Metro Motors Auto Hangar Sir H M Mehta Million (Terms, for 3y; 1600m) There is striking similarity between Murioi and Starry Eyes, the two horses who finsihed one-two in the Gr. 1, Poonawalla Breeders Multi-Million (PBMM) in February this year. During the Bangalore Summer season, both went through two disastrous back-to-back runs which hit their stock so bad, they were not even talked about when future Classics were discussed by racing enthusiasts. However, Starry Eyes, with her fluent victory in the Morvi Trophy last week, bounced back to form, and thereby, has kept her Classic hopes alive. Can Murioi do the same on Sunday? Winning a mock race by 18 lengths (Bangaolore, Nov 2) is not an everyday occurence. I suggest ALL OF YOU watch that race, and decide for yourself if you think Murioi may be back to his old form. My verdict? I think Murioi appeals as an excellent value bet, especially as Circle Of Life, the horse who must benefit if Murioi cannot bounce back, has opened an on money proposition in the night odds. Selections: Murioi 1, Circle Of Life 2, Majestic Reward 3. Recommended as bet: Murioi for WIN Seventh race @ 4.30 pm The Sir Jamsetjee Jeejeebhoy (VI Bart.) Trophy (For 2y, maidens; 1000m) There are three Aces in the fray along with two got-abraods. The best of the Ace progenies is clealry Ravello. He had a good, educative run on debut when he stalked the pace very well, but had to play second fiddle to a vastly superior horse on the day (Be Safe). He has an excellent chance to return a winner now. Of the first-timers, the two got-aborads—Maisha & Feisty Lass—appear forward, going by their trial track movements. However, Ravello can be considered a decent chance bet. Selections: Ravello 1, Maisha 2, Feisty Lass 3. Recommended as bet: Ravello for WIN Eighth race @ 5 pm The Fetchmefortune Plate (Class V, 1-26; 1000m) The contenders here appear to be Blue Bay (going out with a positive jockey switch after he figured on board for the first time in last run, and now with Tongue Strap ON), Song Of Africa (ignore last failure as favourite, I think she can run a really big race on Sunday), Zoe (who almost won in last start over this trip in the hands of a jockey who has been off the riding scene for a long time), and Overtime Magic (who can show improvement over her last run). Selections: Song Of Africa 1, Blue Bay 2, Zoe 3. Upset: Overtime Magic Recommended as bet: None
Posted on: Sun, 24 Nov 2013 06:08:11 +0000