As we approach this election season, heres an interesting statistic from the Federalist. In the very closest large races (those decided by less than one percentage point) there is a statistical anomaly. In the 27 such races since 1998, Democrats have won 20 out of 27. That’s a truly impressive showing, and proof of how very unusual George W. Bush’s victory in Florida in 2000 was. For whatever reason, when statewide races are decided by less than 1 point, Democrats win almost three-quarters of the time. When the margin opens to 1-2 points, that advantage dissipates, and the Democrats win only half the races, as would be expected. The same is true for elections decided by 2-4 points; out of 50 such races, Democrats won 25. What do you make of this statistical anomaly in the close races?
Posted on: Fri, 24 Oct 2014 13:41:58 +0000
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