Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 071141 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. && FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Posted on: Mon, 07 Oct 2013 12:01:04 +0000
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