CLOUDS IN THE HORIZON By Rev. Chris Okotie Okotie@revchrisokotie, follow on twitter @Revchrisokotie, 08078421451 (sms only) Since independence in 1960, political succession has always been a turbulent affair but in this era subtle mind games have replaced the polls- related violence of the first republic which set the stage for the first military coup. And 47 years after that ill-fated, brutal military putsch in 1966, and the civil war that followed, Nigeria is yet to get its bearing. We are still beset by a range of crises of nationhood, popularly called the “National Question” because of the insincerity of our leaders. Many developing nations like Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, South Korea, Indonesia, India, China, and South Africa, have had their fair share of civil wars and power struggle. All of these nations have managed to overcome the ravages of war, internal, ideological contradictions, and class rivalries. They have since evolved into what is now called the newly industrialized countries or emerging markets. Some of these countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have formed an economic power bloc-BRICS. These are supposed to be our peer nations, but Nigeria is not in this new, elite club of emerging economies. Why? We are being held hostage by a succession of greedy governing elites, military and civilian, who continue to mismanage the nation’s resources. More interested in how to appropriate our extractive assets than in governance; the infamous ruling elites have become an army of occupation whose sole objective is to rule and plunder. The amazing thing is that the progressive elements in the polity can’t unite to dislodge the conservative, corrupt, ruthless oligarchy who remain firmly entrenched in State Houses across the nation. The military wing of the cabal has been caged by a new global political ethic that frowns at militocracy; but the remnants of that army have become “born again” politicians who run the show in the ruling party. The former dictators still call the shots in our polity; some ex-generals are still ruling in some states as civilian governors, which shows how influential they are. Now, as the tide of change is becoming irresistible, President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP leadership in the National Assembly have reluctantly yielded to demands for a Sovereign National Conference, SNC, which he has renamed National Dialogue, a clear indication that this is going to be a mere dialogue whose outcome, like the President has said, will be subjected to the approval of the legislature. This is in sharp contrast to the quest for an SNC whose final resolution is expected to be enacted into law untouched by the National Assembly. This is why the President’s Dialogue is facing a credibility problem. There’re serious questions that this sudden convocation of a National Dialogue has thrown up. Why now, when the 2015 elections are just 15 months away? Why now, when the PDP house is on fire? Is this an attempt to divert public attention from the failure of governance at Aso Rock to give our “Oga at the top” some respite from the heat generated by the internal rumblings in the PDP? Is this Dialogue a way to buy valuable time for Mr. President to re-arm his re-election army against 2015? These certainly, are hard questions Mr. Jonathan and his advisers cannot dismiss. They must answer them in the face of the array of crises facing the nation today. Meanwhile, on the sidelines of the strike by doctors and the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, and the PDP internal fire fight; the Taraba State succession conflict between ailing Governor Dambaba Suntai and his deputy, Garba Umar, seems to have been partially resolved by PDP brokered truce. But how long will it last? Suntai only recently returned from a 10-month medical trip abroad after a near fatal-crash of his self-piloted aircraft to find his seat still occupied by his deputy, despite the Governor’s readiness to return to duty. If Suntai is deemed sound enough to govern, he should be allowed to return to his job; if not, the law stipulates that his deputy should be sworn-in as the new Governor. There’s no legal ambiguity about this. It is good that the situation in the state did not degenerate into the ugly episode of the late Presuident Umaru Yar’Adua succession intrigue when an ambitious clique around the terminally ill president tried to rule in his stead, and prevent his then deputy, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan from succeeding him, even when it was obvious that his boss was clinically dead. Taraba should enjoy some level of executive performance so that the Suntai mandate is not completely wasted on the altar of a needless power play. There’s also a remote religious dimension to the Taraba political situation; being a largely Christian-populated state, the need for religious balance dictated the pairing of Governor Suntai, a Christian with his deputy, Umar, a Muslim. If the deputy is prevented from taking office once Suntai is certified medically unfit to govern, it could stoke Muslim anger and precipitate secretarian violence. To resolve this matter permanently, an independent panel should be set up to determine Suntais’ fitness level, since the man says he is healthy enough to return to work. The Presidents’ biggest headache today is the G-7 rebellion. Even if he subdues the rebel Governors, which is doubtful, he’d end up leading a deeply fragmented party into the 2015 elections. The American think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations, CRS, got it all wrong when it tried to present the current implosion in the ruling PDP in the context of a north-south power dichotomy because six of the seven break-away Governors in the New PDP are northern Muslims. This is not about religion. The PDP conflict is the consequence of the premature expression of Presidential ambitions by south-south politicians; President Jonathan and Governor Rotimi Ameachi on the one hand, and the strong desire of the northern elite within the party, most notably some Governors; and some top legislators, to regain the Aso Rock villa in 2015. The northern elites based their bid for a return of the Presidency to the north on the old argument that President Jonathan breached the internal agreement of the ruling party to rotate the coveted office between the north and south when President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua died and Jonathan had to conclude his term. The north didn’t expect Mr. Jonathan to run in 2011 in line with the zoning arrangement that came into force in1998, which produced President Obasanjo and Yar’Adua in that order. However, Nigeria’s political elites are unprincipled and not known to be faithful to any noble cause. Zoning at the presidential level, like federal character, may be good for a season; but not ideal for all eternity. Like I have argued in an earlier article, the zoning principle was relevant to douse the 1993 presidential election post-annulment crisis that angered the Yoruba elites. To ensure a level playing field, the presidency should now be openly contested by all interested persons who meet the constitutional requirements. Beside, zoning is a PDP internal arrangement which is not in the Nigerian constitution. Moreover, what is the basis for retaining a policy which the formulators themselves refuse to implement to the letter? While zoning was in force in the PDP, the late ex-Governor Abubarkar Rimi, a northerner contested the presidency against incumbent president Obasanjo in 2007; Dr Alex Ekwueme lost the nomination to OBJ in the keenly contested primary in 1998 in Jos. Zoning appears to be a smokescreen to mask the inordinate ambitions of politicians who play the ethnic card when convenient to suit their political objectives. It is at the heart of the present convulsion in the PDP and should be abandoned. Let whoever desires the presidency go through the primaries. That should be the standard norm. Rev. Chris Okotie, a Pastor-Politician wrote from Lagos.
Posted on: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 10:51:22 +0000
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