Can I just point out that mission creep is built into the incoherent war Tony Abbott has been touting? Its not a matter of destroying capacity as in the mountains of Afghanistan or Pakistan via airstrikes and drones. Any destruction of ISIL and reconstruction of the Iraqi state requires territory to be gained and held on the ground. If its a matter of air strikes in support of partners, then you have to wonder who they are. In Syria, moderate Sunnis formerly fighting against Assad and ISIL are now fighting with Assad against ISIL. John Kerry is ruling out inviting Americas Great Satan Iran to talks, yet Shia militias - many of whose methods of proceeding are as repulsive as ISILs - are crucial to holding territory within Iraq. The state system is already decomposed, and the patterns of alliance and enmity among non-state actors (and state actors looking on and involved - including Israel as well as Iran and the Saudis, it must be noted) are fast shifting. So, its almost inevitable, and I think previewed in the substance of Abbotts announcement, that first special forces will be airlifted in to fight on the ground, and then were a hop, step and a jump away from committing combat forces semi-permanently. Its not a disaster in the making, its a disaster thats already made. Just sayin...
Posted on: Sun, 14 Sep 2014 07:20:43 +0000
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