Channel Support Violated Short-Term: Market registered a close below the channel support (29,601) yesterday. This exposes risk for further weakness towards 29,039 — 28,972 and 28,693 — 28,518 levels. Any pullback owing to oversold STS readings and contracting volume would counter resistance in 29,579 — 29,829 levels. Neutral trading positions on strength, awaiting fresh signals. General Outlook: A series of higher highs and higher lows display an uninterrupted bullish progression. We recently revisited our minor count, however intermediate and primary Elliot counts remain the same. Accordingly, the fifth minor wave (marked as v) can at best travel towards 30,798 — 31,333 levels (the 150% to 161.8% projection area). On a larger degree, we find market in the fifth intermediate wave (marked as 5) started from Oct’13 low of 21,476 level which would mark an end to the larger degree wave started from 10,771 level. A relapse below 29,298 level would be the first red signal for termination of whole bullish sequence for a sharp correction on the downside to retrace some portion of ascend from 10,771 level —needing a confirmation break below 28,518 level (June’14 low). Considering the index’s position in final stages (high risk) of wave 5 with diverging weekly and monthly momentum indicators, investors are advised to avoid committing aggressive long positions. Preferred plays include ENGRO, PTC, AICL, SNGP, PAEL, NRL, EPCL, AKBL, FABL and BOP. 13-day Leaders: EFUL, AKBL, EFUG, ICI, HUMNL, UBL, ISL, LOTCHEM, INDU & GHGL 13-day Laggards: TRG, AGL, PSEL, KOHC, DGKC, IGIIL, THALL, GRAYS, JVDC & SSGC
Posted on: Thu, 07 Aug 2014 04:30:19 +0000
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