China industrial growth accelerates to 17-month high: BEIJING, Sept 10 — China’s industrial output grew at the fastest pace in 17 months in August, adding to signs of a rebound this quarter that include a pickup in export gains. Factory production rose 10.4 per cent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement in Beijing today, compared with a median forecast of 9.9 per cent in a Bloomberg News survey. Retail sales advanced 13.4 per cent, while fixed-asset investment excluding rural households increased 20.3 per cent in the January-August period, both topping estimates. Today’s data suggest Premier Li Keqiang’s measures from tax cuts to extra spending on railways have helped halt a two-quarter slowdown as he seeks to defend the year’s 7.5 per cent expansion goal. That may ease pressure for additional steps as Li and Communist Party leaders prepare for a November meeting to discuss policy reforms for sustaining long-term growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. “The government growth target appears within reach, which reduces the chance of stimulus and allows the government to focus on reform,” said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index extended gains, rising 1.2 per cent to the highest close since June. The yuan was up 0.03 per cent to 6.1189 at 3:07pm in Shanghai. The government doesn’t release separate industrial data for January and February, which are distorted by the Chinese New Year holiday. Growth industries Industrial production topped all 45 analysts’ estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, with projections ranging from 9.2 per cent to 10.2 per cent, following a 9.7 per cent gain in July. Thirty-nine of 41 industries reported growth, including a 13.6 per cent gain in ferrous metals and 12.3 per cent in chemicals, according to the statistics agency. Steel production rose 15.6 per cent in August, up from 10.9 per cent in July, and electricity output expanded 13.4 per cent, compared with 8.1 per cent the previous month. The median estimate for retail sales was a 13.3 per cent advance after 13.2 per cent in July. Fixed-asset investment was projected by economists to rise 20.2 per cent in the January-August period, after a 20.1 per cent gain in the first seven months of the year. China’s exports rose 7.2 per cent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said Sept. 8. That exceeded the 5.5 per cent median estimate of analysts. At the same time, imports rose a less-than-estimated 7 per cent from a year earlier, leaving a trade surplus of more than US$28 billion (RM91.8 billion). Inflation data Consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent in August, the statistics bureau said yesterday, leaving room for extra stimulus if needed. The producer-price index fell 1.6 per cent, the least since February. Premier Li, in an opinion article published yesterday in the Financial Times, said the economy “will maintain its sustained and healthy growth,” with expansion around a 7.5 per cent “lower limit” intended to ensure steady growth and employment. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week raised its estimate for China’s economic growth for the third and fourth quarters, citing improving global demand and a stronger-than-expected domestic industrial recovery. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG raised their growth forecasts over the past month, bolstering optimism that Li will meet the government’s target for expansion this year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last month gave a median estimate for 7.5 per cent expansion this quarter and 7.3 per cent in the October-December period. Credit toll Citigroup’s Ding said tighter credit may take a toll on the economy in late 2013 and early 2014, with the possibility that growth will decelerate next quarter. China’s top solar-panel makers are returning to profitability following two years of losses as higher demand and prices drive up margins. JinkoSolar Holding Co. last month reported second-quarter net income of US$8 million, its first profit since the third quarter of 2011, as sales jumped 43 per cent from a year earlier. In other economies today, French industrial production unexpectedly fell in July from the previous month, while Italy releases final figures for second-quarter gross domestic product, forecast to show a contraction. — Bloomberg dlvr.it/3xPDPn
Posted on: Tue, 10 Sep 2013 08:38:27 +0000
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