Chinas one child policy has created a demographic disaster with a TFR rate of 1.54. That is, women are having on the average 1.54 children, ... Way below replacement rates. By 2050 her population may fall off a cliff. It is predicted that if these rates stay as they are that by 2050 china will lose 20 million people every five years. It is already estimated that in the last thirty years 100 million to perhaps 400 million births have been prevented, mostly, well massively, disproportionately, female. Experts are predicting horrendous results. America with no policy has a replacement rate among white college educated women of about 1.6 children during their fertile years. People are having pets instead, which I guess are cheaper and according to Dawn seem to get lost at a stupendous rate. Or on the average, across the whole spectrum in the U.S. The complete demographic for women is About 1.93 or below replacement rates and a recipe for eventual disaster as fewer put in and more take out and very bad things follow. You need a replacement rate of 2.1 to just, as you would imagine, replace those who die and keep our population at the same place. The only bright spot is : Hispanic women who tend to have 2.35 children per (but which is also falling, steadily) and are keeping us at 1.93, (which is still below replacement rates) which slows but doesnt stop what will eventually lead to a shrinking population, lots of old people trying to retire, fewer young workers putting into the system and our eventual inability to fund retirements plus ... possible economic stagnation and ... Other things I dont want to talk about. Never mind! Pay no attention. I just woke up from a nap with this on my mind.
Posted on: Mon, 28 Apr 2014 00:40:00 +0000
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