College Bowl Game Info Look to pick the straight up winner of the game. This may seem obvious but lets examine, for a moment, why this statement is so important. Its very common for handicappers and players to become overly preoccupied with the pointspread. But how often does the line matter? Actually, the line only matters when the Favorite wins the game but fails to cover the pointspread. The line does not matter when the Favorite wins and covers and when the Underdog wins outright. Since 1991, the team that won the game also covered the pointspread 74.5% of the time. Thats almost 3 games in four over more than 5,400 games. But the percentage is even higher in Bowl games. Since the 1991 season app. 600 Bowl games have been played and the line has come into play barely 14% of the time. That is, in 86% of all Bowl games played over the past twenty Bowl seasons, the winner of the game has also covered the pointspread. So your first objective is to not be obsessed by the line. Rather, look for the team you think will win the game straight up. When playing an Underdog you should also consider the Money Line under certain conditions. Money Line wagers do not involve points but rather require your team to win the game straight up. When playing an Underdog on the Money Line you receive odds such as +140 or plus 2 to 1, etc. Here are some statistics to guide you. Double digit underdogs (those getting 10 points or more) win straight up only 25% of the time. Thus if you can get at least 3 to 1 on your double digit dog you are getting a fair shake. Keep in mind that the average line for Bowl Underdogs is roughly +6 so the number of double digit dogs is not great (about one Bowl game in six features a double digit line). Surprisingly Underdogs from + 7 to + 9 ½ win at about the same one in four rate and you occasionally will get 3-1 or better in that price range. About one Bowl in seven falls within this pointspread range. An acceptable Money Line range appears to be from + 3 ½ to + 6 ½, or greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown. Underdogs in this range win about one game in three so getting at least 2-1 on these Underdogs can provide value. About one Bowl game in three falls within this pointspread range. Finally the small underdog, up to + 3. These puppies win only about two games in five so you would need at least 3-2 (+ 150) odds to consider these small Underdogs for a money line play. It is extremely important to shop around for money lines since prices can and do vary widely, much more so than straight pointspreads. Respect the Rushing Game Despite the many changes in the game of football, the ability to control the line of scrimmage has always had a strong correlation to success both straight up and Against the Spread. Controlling the line of scrimmage is best evidenced by the ability to run the ball on offense and to stop the run on defense. Historically, teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in excess of 60%. There are many reasons why such a strong correlation exists, including the obvious one that a team that has the lead is more likely to run the ball in the end stages of a game than to prolong the game by attempting passes. There has been a tendency in recent years for Bowls to be high scoring, especially the minor Bowls. A part of the reason why this is so is because one or both teams lack a strong running game to be able to control the clock and protect leads late in games. Often thats the difference between a 9-2 record and a major Bowl bid and a 7-4 log and a minor Bowl appearance. One indicator that has been successful over the long term has been simply average yards per rush on offense. The team having the better rushing average has covered over 55% of the time in all Bowl games dating back to the mid 1980s. In recent years the success rate has faltered a bit but it is still a good indicator of pointspread success in general, not just in Bowl games. How important is the rushing game in Bowls? Consider that in the almost 600 Bowl games played since 1991 the team gaining more rushing yards in a Bowl game has covered at better than a 79% clip. Compare that to the 51% ATS success rate enjoyed by the team gaining more passing yards. The team that has the better average yards per rush in a Bowl game (not necessarily the same team that gains the most rushing yards) has covered at slightly under a 75% rate. That is how strong the rushing game is! However, this has seen some change over the last few years as there are more and more successful teams built around their passing game. Also, more colleges have issues defending the pass so watch this closely. Avoid the disinterested Chalk Not every team that goes to a Bowl is excited about the opportunity. Whereas in days gone by a trip to a Bowl game was a reward for a very successful season, times have changed. Years ago there were many less Bowl games. In order to be invited to a Bowl game a team pretty much needed to win a minimum of 7 and often 8 games. Nowadays it takes only a 6-5 record for a team to become Bowl eligible. Mediocrity is hardly worth rewarding but with 30+ Bowl games there are now 60+ slots to fill. 45% of all Division I-A teams will be going to Bowl games this season. I Yet there are always teams that do go Bowling that may not look upon the experience as a reward and often give a very lackluster effort. Such teams, especially when favored, present outstanding opportunities to play against.One Bowl from a few years ago serves to illustrate this point very well. CAL, undefeated for most of the season and ranked 5th in the BCS and eyeing a BCS Bowl was overlooked by the BCS and invited instead to a minor Bowl. This was clearly a snub by the BCS. Their lack of interest was obviously ignored by the bettors who drove CAL to be a heavy favorite over their Big 12 opponent Texas Tech. Their opponent Texas Tech, was happy to just be in a Bowl game and it showed. Texas Tech not only covered the generous double digits but won the game outright. Several years ago many will recall USC was another team that was not enthused about playing in their Bowl game, even despite a two season absence from any Bowl. They were favored by 16 points over TCU, a program that had been to just two Bowl games in the past twenty years. The program was on the upswing under new coach Dennis Franchione and was excited to be in the Sun Bowl, even though it was being held in their home state. Of course, TCU pulled the upset, totally outplaying USC and winning 28-19. The disinterested Bowl participant happens yearly and almost always these will be in the pre-January games, but every so often a New Years Day participant might be disinterested. Looking for those disinterested teams can prove oh so profitably betting against them. Goodluck
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 22:47:15 +0000