Colm McCarthy: Controversial energy issues on Irish agenda for 2014 Ireland already has substantial capacity in wind energy and it is not clear that the balance of economic advantage lies in building even more. There are three controversial energy issues on the Irish agenda for 2014. These are Eirgrid’s plans to build three high-voltage power lines in different parts of the country, the plans for further construction of large wind farms – particularly in the Midlands and the west –and the ambitions of several companies to explore for onshore gas. The issues are related and need to be seen against the background of high energy prices in Ireland, particularly for electricity, and the national policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is no longer room for doubt about the reality of climate change. Scientists do not pretend that they have a full understanding of the processes at work, but there is now overwhelming evidence that the Earth’s climate is changing and the principal driver is the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change is taking the form of a slow and gradual increase in average temperature. Since the industrial revolution began to spread around the world during the 19th century average temperature appears to have risen by about 1ºC. The Earth’s climate has always been changing. For example there have been regular ice ages. But a 1ºC rise in average temperature over such a short period in Earth’s history is ominous. If the process was already at an end, there would be little to worry about. The trouble is that global emissions of greenhouse gases will, unless policy halts and ultimately reverses their growth, push average temperatures up further, with potentially serious negative effects. Just how big a reduction in emissions is needed, and how quickly, is controversial. Some scientists think that a further 1ºC of warming would do major damage and they seek urgent action. Others think 1ºC more would be tolerable and that slower adjustment might prove adequate. All agree that nothing disastrous is likely to happen anytime soon, so this policy debate is about future generations. The Earth has just one climate. Every tonne of carbon dioxide, or of other greenhouse gases, emitted by any process anywhere around the globe has the same effect. Accordingly, it makes no sense for individual small countries to limit their own emissions unless others agree to do the same and the problem is securing worldwide agreement on what needs to be done. This has proven to be enormously difficult and emissions continue to rise, more in developing countries than in the richer parts of the world. Every country would like to see other countries reduce their emissions. In recent years, coal usage, a major source of emissions, has been rising sharply, particularly in power generation, and this has offset the improving efficiencies of energy use in the transport and industrial sectors. Coal is more plentiful than oil and many countries possess sizeable reserves. The recent reduction in natural gas prices in North America and, consequently the shale gas revolution, has seen cheaper US coal supplies diverted to European power generators and new coal-fired stations have been built in large numbers in China and in other fast-growing economies. In Ireland, the Government is committed to further reliance on wind farms for electricity production. There are also plans by both private and semi-state companies to build very large wind farms in Ireland, with a view to exporting power to Britain. Eirgrid’s plans for more transmission lines are in part a reflection of the expected increase in wind farm activity. Finally, the Government has yet to articulate a clear policy about onshore gas exploration. Even when the Corrib field finally comes on stream, after a decade of delay and largely unnecessary expense inflicted on Shell and on the Exchequer, Ireland will still be dependent on natural gas imports. It would be very welcome if additional domestic gas, onshore or offshore, could be discovered, as would be an import channel for liquefied natural gas. Ireland already has substantial capacity in wind energy and it has not been made clear that the balance of economic advantage lies in building even more. Clearly any plans to export wind energy to Britain should receive no hidden subsidy through the construction, at consumers’ expense, of transmission capacity that would not otherwise be needed. Some of Eirgrid’s plans look unavoidable, necessary to renew and strengthen the national grid. But some reflect investment necessitated by the continuing dash into wind farms, where the economic advantages are not clear. Putting transmission lines underground, everyone’s favourite cop-out, is prohibitively expensive. The opposition to onshore gas exploration is based on fears about fracking technology, already in widespread use in the United States and elsewhere. Does Ireland’s economy need fracking, more pylons and more wind farms? Concerns about fracking are overdone, but there is scope to scale back on pylons, and to curtail wind farm development. Irish Farmers Journal, 16th January 2014
Posted on: Mon, 20 Jan 2014 22:20:10 +0000
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