Compliments of Tim Hannagan, Walsh Trading, Inc. Grain Specialist 312-957-8108 or 888-391-7894 email: thannagan@walshtrading Please find the current Weather Forecast provided by WxRisk. We hope you find it useful. This statement is being issued at 1800 EDT JULY 29 and based upon a total review of ALL the Model data and surface reports. RIGHT NOW The only significant activity on the Monday morning radar is the same band of heavy showers and thunderstorms which were affecting portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and southwest Missouri on Sunday afternoon. This band has moved further to the north and is now dropping significant rain over northeastern portions of Kansas, Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Missouri. The rains over southwestern Missouri are somewhat lighter with respect to the coverage and rainfall amounts. Besides that, the only showers or rain that can be seen is some scattered activity across western portions of South Dakota and central Montana. nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php WHAT HAPPENED SUNDAY? SUNDAY MAX TEMPS weather.unisys/surface/temp_hi.gif 60s were COMMON over KS ... Mainly due to the cloud cover and the rain ... and over WI and MI ... 70s were common over eastern MT, ND, SD, NEB, MO, IA, ILL, IND, OH, KY and northern ARK... 80s over GA, AL, MS, southern ARK, OK and over eastern WY and eastern COL... 90s over western OK, western and central TX, and LA. RAINFALL JULY 28 - 29 -- Rainfall MONDAY 0700 CDT to TUESDAY 0700 CDT. Although significant rain the last 24 hours was confined to central and eastern COL, southern NEB and KS. The coverage was 75% and the amounts ranged from 0.10 to 0.65" over COL, western KS and western NEB to 0.25 to 1.75" over eastern KS and southeast NEB. weather.unisys/surface/prec_day.gif SUMMARY: Models HOLD overnight. Rains over NEB, KS spread into MO, south ILL, IND, KY this week... But have hard time coming north. 6-10 DAY wide band of heavy rains over central Plains & Lower Midwest of 1-3". Temps way below Normal. 11-15 day darn cool over Midwest for mid AUG. DAY 1 - 5 / JULY 29 - AUG 2 The Monday morning weather map still shows the conditional or Maine front over the East Coast of the U.S. That extends into eastern NC, central SC, northern GA, AL, MS, then into ARK, northeast OK, southern KS, and eastern COL. There is a second reinforcing cold front that is sweeping through the WCB and western Great Lakes. There is not much to change in the short term as the various weather models held overnight. The significant rains over KS, OK, and ARK have now spread north into eastern NEB, KS and western MO. They will have a lot of trouble moving any further north for the rest of this week, but the rains should expand eastward into the southern third of ILL, IND and all of KY. For the rest of this week ND, SD, IA, MN, WIL, Northern ILL, northern IND and OH all look to be pretty dry with temperatures running much below normal in these areas north of the rain band. 6-10 DAY / AUG 3 - 7 All the models continue to show a pretty wide band of significant rain running either WEST to EAST across the lower Midwest and the central Plains OR in a southeast- northwest alignment running from GA to TN to MO to NEB. The band of rain is pretty thick and drops 1-3" in many areas. The 0z and 6z GFS drops over 4" of rain in central MO. The area of uncertainty has to do with how far north this band of significant rain will develop. Right now most of the model data is keeping this rain out of the Dakotas, MN, the northern half of IA, northern ILL, and the northern half of the ECB, but there is some variability with regard to where the actual heavy rain band is going to setup. Again it needs to be noted, however, that the data continues to show a pretty chilly pattern for early August and temperatures running several degrees below normal over all of the central and upper Plains and all of the Midwest. 6-10 DAY GFS RAINFALL FORECAST images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/12/pcpsums/0120/GFS_12_opUS_PS_0240.png 6-10 DAY ECMWF RAINFALL FORECAST images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/pcpsums/0120/ECM_12_opUS_PS_0240.png 11-15 DAY/ AUGUST 8 - 12 There is also impressive consistency in the overall pattern regarding the jet stream configurations across North America in the month of August. All the data continues to show a strong RIDGE over the West Coast of North America and a correspondingly deep trough over the ECB/East Coast. Not surprisingly, all the data continues to show large areas of below and much below normal temperatures east the Rockies all the way to the East coast. RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Jul 2013 18:45:55 +0000
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