Congrats to Keahi Tucker proclaimed the winner of the Media Heat at the Dukes OceanFest! Way to represent... Hawaii News Now! SURF FORECAST: PAT CALDWELL The jet stream unfolded a trough as it steered a low pressure and associated cold front to the NNE just to the east of New Zealand 8/14-15. Severe gales covered a narrow fetch of 195-200 degrees, limited in width due to proximity to New Zealand. The width factor adds uncertainty on the specifics of the surf size maximum for this event. High odds of the event filling in above the summer average, but the exact size is fuzzy. Fine-tuning can be made if necessary after the swell trains roll under 51003. The initial 24 hours of remote, long-period swell typically are extra-inconsistent in arrival of sets. The swell with 16-18 seconds should increase the size locally above the summer average on Thursday, with a tendency toward more consistency of sets late Thursday into Friday. The low pressure occluded near 40s to the east of New Zealand on 8/15, tracked slowly to the E, then quicker SE 8/16-18 with a weakening trend. The head of the fetch of marginal gales reached to within 3500 nm 8/15-17. Moderate period swell of 13-16 seconds from this source should over lap with the source from further away, making overnight Thursday into Friday morning as the peak of the event locally from 190-200 degrees. This latter source should also make consistency of sets great for Friday into Saturday. Surf from the occluded low should be long-lived, with a slow decline Saturday to Monday from 180-195 degrees. The active pace of extra-tropical cyclones along 60s from south of Tasmania to SE of New Zealand continued 8/13-20, with about a two-day spacing. The primary fetches have been more zonal, aiming better toward the Americas, though of magnitude should at least keep near average summer level surf. One such system 8/14-16 is modelled to fill in locally Saturday 8/23 from 190-200 degrees, overlapping with the declining source, to keep average summer surf into Monday.
Posted on: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 10:24:51 +0000
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