Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oils recovery was rather weak and larger fall from 107.73 quickly recovered. Indeed, crude oil reached as low as 90.43, breaking 91.24 key support level. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 96.00 resistance holds. Current fall would target 100% projection of 112.24 to 91.24 from 107.73 at 96.73 next. Nonetheless, break of 96.00 will indicate reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 55 days EMA (now at 98.51). In the bigger picture, crude oil is still bounded in the multi-year converging range that started back in 2011 at 114.83. Current decline is part of the falling leg from 112.24 and would target lower trend line (now at around 86.2). Meanwhile, above 96.00 resistance will turn focus back to the upper side of the range between 112.24/114.83. In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that its second wave of the consolidation pattern. Break of 74.94 would argue that the third leg has already started and crude oil would be in another long term down trend.
Posted on: Sun, 14 Sep 2014 18:52:37 +0000
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