Current Hypotheses Regarding Los Zetas With that in mind then, lets consider some of the hypotheses we are currently working off of regarding Los Zetas. First, while we mentioned above that Los Zetas historically have been flashy and violent, we believe there has been a noticeable difference in the groups behavior after Miguel Trevino Morales assumed control. Since then, the group appears to have adopted a lower profile, with far fewer high-profile acts of violence and public displays of bodies and narcomantas. This is not to say that the group is any less violent, but with no indicators suggesting the group has weakened, it appears they have made a conscious decision to attempt to lower their press and public profile in hopes of reducing government pressure on them. Of course, it is also possible that some observers could interpret this lower profile as weakness, but such an assumption is not supported by what we can observe happening in Los Zetas home base. We operate under the assumption that a quiet plaza is a productive plaza. In other words, the less violence there is in a high-volume drug-trafficking corridor, the better that is for the business of the organized crime group that controls it. A lack of violence in a plaza is also a sign that it is under the uncontested control of a particular organization. Historically, we have seen large fights for the control of lucrative plazas such as Tijuana and Juarez, and when the Sinaloa Federation believed the Gulf cartel was weakened following the arrest of then-Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen in 2003, it attempted to take control of Nuevo Laredo and a major war erupted between the two cartels in 2004. In the case of Los Zetas, we have hypothesized that if the organization had indeed been weakened, the other cartels would be aware of the weakness and would make a push to grab the lucrative Nuevo Laredo plaza as Sinaloa did in 2004. Nuevo Laredo is the busiest cargo crossing from the United States to Mexico, and that heavy flow of traffic permits a large flow of contraband cargo to be hidden alongside legitimate goods. But since the death of Lazcano Lazcano and the capture of Trevino Morales, we have not seen a war break out for control of the city. Therefore, based on the lack of observable violence in Nuevo Laredo, we can conclude that Los Zetas remain in control of that plaza and that contraband continues to flow through it. It is also worth noting that Los Zetas rivals, including their biggest competitor, the Sinaloa Federation, have been hit hard by attrition. In fact, the organization that was sent to Nuevo Laredo to wrest it from Gulf cartel control in 2004, the Beltran Leyva Organization, has split away from Sinaloa and some of its remnants are currently fighting with Los Zetas against Sinaloa. If Los Zetas were significantly weakened, we also assume we would see another organization attempt to take control of Monterrey, a major transportation hub in northeastern Mexico. The same transportation infrastructure that makes it a major industrial center also makes it a major hub for illicit trade. If a rival cartel could seize control of Monterrey, it could impact the flow of Los Zetas contraband through Nuevo Laredo. There has recently been a minor spike of violence in Monterrey, but we have not seen a dramatic escalation of violence that would indicate a significant new struggle for control there. The current level of violence in Monterrey is much lower than it was in 2010 and 2011, when Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel battled for control of the city following the split between the two organizations. Like all criminal enterprises, law enforcement efforts, infighting, power struggles and plain old greed will eventually weaken, if not destroy, Los Zetas. But that has not yet happened, and Los Zetas remain a powerful organization engaged in a diverse range of criminal activities across a large portion of Mexico -- and the globe. Read more: Mexicos Zetas Are Not Finished Yet | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
Posted on: Fri, 25 Oct 2013 02:37:23 +0000
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