DAY 3 (WEDNESDAY and WEDNESDAY NIGHT) Severe Weather Outlook Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area include Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Louisville, KY... NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES... ...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 27/00Z. NAM/GFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF AND THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED VERSION WHICH WILL RESULT IN MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING TO NEAR THE OH RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. LATE DAY2 CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/PROPAGATE EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO DUE TO VEERED LLJ. BY AFTERNOON REMNANTS OF THIS WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO WRN NY AS LLJ BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND THIS COULD ENCOURAGE RENEWED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MIGRATING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. WIND/HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS CONVECTION. LATER IN THE DAY STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORT-WAVE DIGS SEWD RESULTING IN SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ACROSS MUCH OF IL/IND BY PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS EXHIBIT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A VEERED BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL/WIND WOULD DEFINITELY BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF SHORT-WAVE DIGS AS FORECAST. ..DARROW.. 06/24/2013
Posted on: Mon, 24 Jun 2013 08:10:37 +0000
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