Daily Kos Election Outlook: Kansas rulebook gets scrambled yet again ::posted Mon, 22 Sep 2014 12:30:05 +0000:: ift.tt/1uxeNQ4 rss@dailykos (David Jarman) Weve already gone through two previous game-changing moments in the Kansas Senate race this month; first, Democratic candidate Chad Taylor dropped out, clearing the way for the better-financed independent Greg Orman to have a clear shot at beating Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, so we had to switch over to only the handful of polls that had looked at a head-to-head Orman vs. Roberts race. Then Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach ruled that Taylor didnt follow proper dropout procedures and would stay on the ballot, at which point we had to switch back to the few polls that had Roberts, Orman, and a disclaimer that Taylor wasnt running but still allowing respondents to pick him. Last Thursday, though, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Taylors name should be removed from the ballot. Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach is insisting that the Democrats name someone else to replace Taylor on the ballot, but hes also out of time; federal law requires him to send out ballots very soon to reach overseas voters, so at least the first round of ballots will be printed without any Democrat on the ballot. The Supreme Court didnt even reach the question of whether any Democrat should be on the ballot, only ruling that Taylor himself shouldnt be. A random Democrat (whose son works for Sam Brownback) is suing to get the Democrats to name a replacement candidate, so its possible well hear from the Kansas Supreme Court again ... meaning its entirely possible that we may be writing another post in a few more weeks about how the model is changing to accommodate an entirely new Democratic candidate! Considering that the ballots are about to ship, though, weve had to switch back to using the polls of only an Orman vs. Roberts race. Three more polls of that matchup came out last week: a PPP poll showing Orman up 46-36, a Fox News poll showing Orman up 48-42, and a Rasmussen Reports poll showing Orman up 45-40. That combination of polls gives Orman a very strong chance of winning: 94 percent. Unfortunately, though, the odds of a Democratic victory in Kansas havent improved at all, going from 42 percent last Thursday to 40 percent now. Thats because Orman has stated hell caucus with whichever party already has the majority in the Senate. (He hasnt stated what hell do if its a 49 D/50 R split and he gets to decide control of the Senate by himself, so we assign him 50-50 odds of going each way.) So even though, at this point, Orman is very likely to win, the odds of the Democrats winning at least 49 other seats in the Senate have declined noticeably. There are two conditions necessary for Kansas to be a Democratic victory (Orman has to win, and the Democrats have to get at least 49 seats other than Orman), and while the odds of the first condition are as strong as ever, the odds for the second condition are lower. Well discuss why thats the case over the fold, along with the gubernatorial races: [Forwarded by the MyLeftBlogosphere news engine. Link to original post below:]
Posted on: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 13:51:14 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015