Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest Leading Off: NE-02: Its been a long time since things have looked good for Republican Rep. Lee Terry. He came close to losing his seat in 2012 to an underfunded opponent even as Romney was winning it 53-46, he made national headlines for all the wrong reasons during the shutdown, and he only narrowly beat a no-named primary challenger in May. Democrats have also posted great numbers in the early vote, and Terrys own party has privately conceded that hes losing. Terry and his allies at the NRCC know hes in real trouble and have been running a series of ads against Democrat Brad Ashford, accusing him of making it easier for murderers to go free. While Terry has been harshly criticized at home for the spots, its been an open question how individual voters are responding. DFM Research, on behalf of the union SMART, gives us our first poll in a long time and the results are not good news for Terry: They find Ashford ahead 46-41. DFM also asked about the Senate and gubernatorial contests and find realistic Republican leads here, so it doesnt look like the sample is too blue. Instead, its easy to explain why Terrys trailing: Voters utterly hate him. Terry posts a 34-54 favorable rating while Ashford is above water at 40-34. This is just one poll and well see if Terry or his allies respond with a better one. The NRCC just aired another spot for the congressman (see our Ads & Independent Expenditures section) so it doesnt look like his party has given up on him. However, given all of Terrys many travails over the fast few years, its not at all hard to believe that Omaha has finally had enough of him. **A quick message from Salsa Labs: Once a user takes their first action, the hard work really starts. As an online organizer, it can be daunting to think and plan two or three steps ahead… but it doesn’t have to be. Join us for the webinar, What’s Next: Getting Your Supporters to Take the Next Step, where we’ll talk about how to accomplish your goals and your supporters’ goals through your website, how to make sure you always have the next goal lined up (and the pathway to get there), as well as real-life examples and guidance. We’ll help you lay out your organization’s goals and achieve long-term success. Early Voting: Taniel takes another look at the early voting tealeaves in races across the country and finds numbers that should make both sides happy, but plenty of uncertainty all around: Colorado: 660,113 ballots have already been processed as returned in Colorado, which represents about 36 percent of the total numbers of votes cast in 2010. And hundreds of thousands more have likely already been mailed in by voters. So were moving toward a resolution here, more quickly than in any other battleground state. Turnout may be more important here than in any other state because Democratic hopes of re-electing Sen. Mark Udall are dependent on a strong ground game combined with the states brand new all-mail system proving polls wrong, just as in 2010. For now Republicans have a solid lead of 10.4 percentage points among returned ballots. While that gap may seem daunting given the number of voters who have already cast their ballots, it is expected for Republicans to be ahead; even in 2012 they outvoted Democrats by 2 percentage points among Colorados 1.9 million early voters. Nate Cohn, whose New York Times bought the Colorado voter files and with it a treasure trove of demographic information, cautions further that the first wave of returned ballots is unrepresentative: Forty-three percent of early voters are 65 or over, and disproportionately from Republican jurisdictions. He adds that, twenty-one percent did not participate in 2010, and those voters are far more Democratic than those who participated in 2010. It is definitely true that the largest Democratic counties are underreporting compared to Republican counties, and there are clear reasons to think this will not signal a drop in Democratic turnout. In Democratic Boulder County, for instance, 43,000 ballots had been processed as cast in the Monday report. At the equivalent point in 2010, it was just 27,000. That said, it has become very tricky to compare 2014 to past cycles. Yes, Republicans typically grab a large lead among voters who cast their ballot first, but can Democrats shrug that off as they have in the past now that every single registered voters in the state was sent a ballot at the same time? That said, a comparison of partisan breakdown of returned ballots and voter registration statistics confirms that Republicans are voting at a greater rate than Democrats even if we analyze the numbers by county-by-county. Florida: Since in-person voting started, Democrats have daily made up some of the deficit they faced from the GOPs superior rate of mail-in voting. Republicans were outvoting Democrats by 12 percentage points as of Wednesday morning and 10 percentage points as of Friday morning. As of Tuesday morning, the GOPs edge stood at 7 percentage points. The latest narrowing was helped by Democrats traditional Souls to the Polls operation on Sunday, thanks to which they took a lead among in-person voters for the first time in Monday mornings report. There is a lot to like for Democrats in these numbers. The GOPs advantage of 14 percentage points during the 2010 midterms has already been halved, and Democrats are likely to make further gains in the coming week. But Florida also poses unique challenges to such historical comparisons. In 2012 the Obama campaign pushed to get Democrats to vote early in a way they were not accustomed to in this state, and Democrats ended up casting more votes than Republicans. Later a new law was adopted that required that every voter who requested a mail ballot in 2012 also be sent one this year. These two changes may explain some of the changing behavior by Democratic voters this year. Georgia: More than half-a-million votes have now been cast in Georgia, though the lack of party registration in the state makes further analysis tricky. What we do know is that 60 percent of early voters are white, and 30 percent are black. And it gets interesting when we look at the difference between early voters who voted in 2010 and those who did not: Among those voters whose race appears on voter files, 67 percent of those who did vote four years ago are white compared to just 50 percent among those who did not vote then. Iowa: Democrats have at least deprived Republicans of a talking point: After the Thursday morning report showed that registered Republicans had returned more ballots than registered Democrats, the first time this had happened over at least the past three cycles, Democrats immediately regained an advantage and have increased it since. As of Tuesday morning, their edge stood at 1.1 percentage point among 322,625 ballots cast. The bad news for Iowa Democrats is clear: These numbers represent a big loss of their historical superiority in early voting. Even in 2010, which saw the defeat of Democratic Gov. Chet Culver, they enjoyed an advantage of 5.5 percentage points by the end of the early voting period. (The edge was 7 percentage points a week out.) And Molly Ball published a new report in The Atlantic on Iowa Democrats ground game struggles. The usual early voting question applies here: Do these numbers represent Democratic voters sitting this one out, an influx of new Republican voters, or just a shift in how the usual voters vote? There is one reason to at least rule out the first possibility: More registered Democrats have voted this year seven days out as had voted the Friday before the 2010 election. This is nothing like in Nevada (see below). At the very least, what we are seeing is less a drop in the Democrats game than Republicans upping theirs: More registered Republicans have voted this year seven days out as had voted the Monday before the 2010 election. Whether this Republican growth represents an expanded electorate will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the Senate race. Nevada: Where are the Democrats? Lacking a strong top of the ticket, it looks like many of them are simply staying home. As Jon Ralston is documenting, overall turnout has dropped considerably compared to the equivalent point in 2010, and turnout among registered Democrats has collapsed. As of Tuesday morning, the GOP has a statewide lead of about 17,000 ballots, and an absolutely unprecedented lead of 2,000 ballots in Clark County. Adding insult to injury, Republicans are now not only outvoting Democrats in that Democratic county, but they are doing so by comfortable margins: They had an edge of 5 percentage points among Monday voters. There is some uncertainty as to whether a greater share of Democratic voters than usual will vote on Election Day now that there is no strong statewide campaign mobilizing them urging them to vote early. And their saving grace may be that they do not need as stellar a turnout operation this year as they had in 2010 to re-elect Rep. Steven Horsford or to carry Secretary of State Ross Miller across the finish line in the attorney general contest. North Carolina: Democrats have been concerned about their strength ever since Republicans cut the early voting period. But North Carolina has already caught up to the 2010 totals! As of Tuesday morning, as many voters had cast a ballot in-person over five days of early voting as had over twelve days of early voting in 2010. That robust turnout has been driven by registered Democrats. They account for 50 percent of in-person early votes, compared to 30 percent for Republicans. Taking mail ballots into account, the Democrats advantage is 48.4 percent to 31.3. Granted, Democrats have always had a superior early voting operation in this state. But these numbers are strong even compared to past years: Michael Blitzer calculates that Democrats have cast 110 percent as many ballots as they had on the equivalent day in 2010, while Republicans have cast 81 percent as many. And not only is Democrats current lead (48-31) greater than it was in 2010 (46-37), but for now it is also greater than in the presidential year of 2012, when it stood at 47.6 percent to 31.5 percent. The electorate is also far less white than in 2010, though more so than in 2012: It was 77 percent white in 2010, 68 percent in 2012, 72 percent white as of this point in 2014. But perhaps it is this chart that contains the most promising sign for Democrats: 21 percent of early voting Democrats did not vote in 2010, versus 17 percent of Republicans. That may seem like a small difference, but it is at least a sign that this years stronger Democratic turnout cannot entirely be explained by a shift in usual voters preferred mode of voting. Others: Millions of votes have been cast in many other states that I cannot cover here, but as always you can check Michael McDonalds excellent website for state-by-state statistics and links to follow all the early voting action. Senate: Polling: Coming at you Senate-style! AK-Sen: Ivan Moore (D): Mark Begich (D-inc): 50, Dan Sullivan (R): 42 GA-Sen: SurveyUSA: David Perdue (R): 48, Michelle Nunn (D): 45, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 3 (Oct. 20: 46-44-4 Nunn) IA-Sen: Loras College: Bruce Braley (D): 45, Joni Ernst (R): 44 (Oct. 3: 42-42 tie) LA-Sen: Rasmussen: Bill Cassidy (R): 50, Mary Landrieu (D): 46 (Oct. 14: 52-43 Cassidy) MI-Sen: Glengariff: Gary Peters (D): 48, Terri Lynn Land (R): 33 (Oct. 4: 45-36 Peters) NH-Sen: New England College: Scott Brown (R): 48, Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 47 (Oct. 16: 48-47 Brown) OR-Sen: Elway Research: Jeff Merkley (D-inc): 49, Monica Wehby (R): 30 SD-Sen: Monmouth: Mike Rounds (R): 45, Rick Weiland (D): 31, Larry Pressler (I): 19 SD-Sen: SurveyUSA: Rounds: 43, Weiland: 32, Pressler: 19 (Oct. 5: Rounds: 35, Pressler: 33, Weiland: 28) VA-Sen: Roanoke: Mark Warner (D-inc): 45, Ed Gillespie (R): 32 (Sept.: 46-27 Warner) So now we have a second Alaska poll showing Begich with an implausibly huge lead, but hey, where are the GOPs numbers? Perhaps the biggest red flag with regard to Ivan Moores new survey, though, is the fact that he also has GOP Rep. Don Young trailing Some Dude Forrest Dunbar 46-41 for the states lone House seat. Youngs received some very negative attention lately for his offensive and insensitive comments at a high school teen suicide, but could his mouth really have hurt him so gravely? It seems hard to believe. Meanwhile, Braley finally gets some good news in Iowa, though again, we have a weird situation with the same outfits House polling. A day earlier, Loras released some very depressing numbers for Democrats in IA-01 and IA-03 (and IA-04, too), so its hard to square all that with a lead for Braley. At the same time, Loras IA-02 results were probably too optimistic for Team Blue, given the late flurry of activity were seeing around the race (check out our ad roundup below), so everything about this poll may be askew. Whats weird about New England College is that theyre the only pollster to show Scott Brown leading and their last three polls have all been 48-47 Brown. Thats a bit unusual. And finally, South Dakota was fun while it lasted, but it looks like the merry-go-round has just about stopped. For a brief moment there, Rounds was battered by scandal and swooning like a punch-drunk welterweight. But even though the NRSCs ads were crappy, they seem to have done the trick, and the committee is now pulling out of the state. Consequently, were moving this race back to Likely Republican from Lean Republican. Our poll-based Election Outlook model gives Weiland almost no chance of pulling off an upset, though given how weird this race still is, were hedging out bets just a bit. Gubernatorial: CO-Gov: We recently highlighted a $2 million RGA ad targeting Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper that featured Dennis OConnor, whose daughter Colleen was murdered by Nathan Dunlap. OConnor criticized Hickenlooper, saying that the governor wants to give Dunlap full clemency. The Hickenlooper campaign is calling for stations not to air the spot, and The Denver Post indicates that they may get their way. Colleens family also is not all on board with the spot. The issue is over the term full clemency: While Hickenlooper is considering commuting Dunlaps death sentence to life in prison, he is not contemplating letting him go free. Dennis OConnors ex-wife and his niece Gillian McNally have both criticized the ad, with McNally arguing that the RGA is re-victimizing our family. Its unclear how voters are responding to all of this, but this doesnt seem to be going the way the Republicans planned. The story also has one other interesting bit. It notes that Democratic polls have Hickenlooper up 4-6 points against Bob Beauprez, though the GOP thinks the race is closer. The RGAs lack of spending may have given Hickenlooper the chance to open up a lead. The Republicans were airing ads here over the summer but had to divert resources in early October to defend other seats. By contrast, national Republicans never let their foot off the gas in the Senate race, where most polls find Democratic Sen. Mark Udall running behind Hickenlooper. Judging by this ad, it may have been better for Beauprez if the RGA continued to stay away. ME-Gov: You usually dont find much agreement between two rival political campaigns, but both Democrats and Republicans both acknowledge two things about the Maine gubernatorial race: The contest is tight, and the supporters of left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler will decide if Republican Gov. Paul LePage gets a second term. In recent days both sides have released a poll showing the contest tied. On Tuesday an independent poll from Pan Atlantic also found LePage and Democrat Michael Michaud deadlocked 40-40, with Cutler at 13. Not coincidently, Michaud has been making gains as Cutler has been declining: The groups last poll gave LePage a 39-34 lead, with Cutler taking 20. Other recent polls have been all over the map, showing everything from a 6-point lead for Michaud to a 10-point edge for LePage, but with both parties showing a tie its hard to conclude that this contest isnt tight. Both sides recognize that if Cutlers remaining supporters break for Michaud, its all over for LePage. Michaud and his allies at NextGen Climate are both running ads featuring several former Cutler supporters saying that theyll be backing Michaud this year, arguing that Michaud can beat LePage. For their part, the RGA is trying to boost Cutler. Their ad attacks Michaud for trying to create a new tax, and notes that then-Gov. Angus King vetoed the bill. The narrator then mentions that King, now an independent senator, is backing Cutler. LePage is not mentioned at all in the spot: The ad is clearly aimed at Michaud supporters who may not be completely sold on their candidate, and whom the Republicans think they can pry toward Cutler. King himself is calling the RGA out for using him in their ad, declaring that the spot is trying to trick people. In the 2012 Senate race the Republicans tried a similar tactic against King, running a spot to promote Democratic nominee Cynthia Dill. Dill was running a distant third in the polls and the GOP hoped that if they could move some Democratic voters from King to her, they could give Charlie Summers an opening. It didnt work, with King crushing Summers 53-31. Of course, in a race as tight as this years gubernatorial contest, the Republicans dont need to send too many Michaud voters to Cutler for LePage to win. Usually, independent candidates lose much of their support at the end of the race. However, theres no telling if that will happen this time. Maine is more open to voting for independents than almost any other state. Cutler also came very close to beating LePage in 2010, and hes much better known than most independents. Dreaminonempty also finds that this year, independent candidates are keeping more of their supporters than usual. Cutler himself stopped running ads and that gives Michaud the chance to appeal to his voters. This election may ultimately come down to whether Cutler can crater enough to get Michaud across the finish line, or if LePage and his allies can expand the independents support enough to secure another Republican victory. SC-Gov: Democrats hoped that wealthy Republican-turned-independent Tom Ervin could take enough conservative votes to cost Republican Gov. Nikki Haley a second term, but polls indicate that Haley was on track to decisively defeat Ervin and Democrat Vincent Sheheen anyway. On Monday, Ervin decided if he cant beat Sheheen, hell join him: Ervin has dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat. Its unclear how much support Ervin actually had. An early October poll from Winthrop gave him 4 percent of the vote, while a Susquehanna survey from last week had him taking 14 percent. Its also unclear how many of those voters will go with Ervin to the Sheheen camp, how many will go to Haley, and how many will still vote for Ervin, whose name will remain on the ballot. The last few polls have also shown Haley at the 50 percent mark, so this may not make any real difference. Sheheen did outperform his polls in 2010 though, and if hes going to do it again, picking up most of Ervins supporters is a good step. Polling: Can you hear me in the back? CO-Gov: Rasmussen: Bob Beauprez (R): 49, John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 47 (Sept.: 50-46 Hickenlooper) FL-Gov: Øptimus: Rick Scott (R-inc): 42, Charlie Crist (D): 39, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 12 (Oct. 12: 41-39-13 Crist) GA-Gov: SurveyUSA: Nathan Deal (R-inc): 46, Jason Carter (D): 44, Andrew Hunt (Lib): 3 (Oct. 20: 45-43-4 Deal) HI-Gov: Merriman River: David Ige (D): 40, Duke Aiona (R): 34, Mufi Hannemann (I): 11 (Sept.: 43-39-8 Ige) MA-Gov: MassINC: Charlie Baker (R): 43, Martha Coakley (D): 42 (Oct. 18: 43-42 Baker) MA-Gov: UMass Lowell: Baker: 45, Coakley: 41 (Aug.: 41-32 Coakley) ME-Gov: Pan Atlantic SMS: Paul LePage (R-inc): 40, Mike Michaud (D): 40, Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (Sept.: 39-34-20 LePage) MI-Gov: Glengariff: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 45, Mark Schauer (D): 40 (Oct. 4: 45-37 Snyder) NH-Gov: New England College: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 47, Walt Havenstein (R): 47 (Oct. 16: 51-43 Hassan) OR-Gov: Elway Research: John Kitzhaber (D-inc): 45, Dennis Richardson (R): 38 RI-Gov: Brown Univ.: Gina Raimondo (D): 38, Allan Fung (R): 37, Robert Healey (Moderate): 12 (Oct. 17: 42-31-9 Raimondo) Theres no doubt that the New Hampshire governors race has tightened, but Hassans led in every poll ever. Whats more, if you check out our Senate section above, youll see theyve shown rock-solid stability in the Shaheen-Brown race for weeks. So why would Hassans 8-point lead abruptly disappear? It doesnt really make sense, and other pollsters arent showing the same phenomenon. In Oregon, Elway offers the first possible hint that the green card marriage scandal involving Kitzhabers fiancée might have hurt the incumbent a bit. Generally speaking, fellow Democrat Jeff Merkley has run a few points ahead of Kitz, which may have a lot to do with the weakness of his opponent, Monica Wehby. But Elway now finds Merkley up 19 and Kitzhaber up just 7; that 12-point spread is the biggest weve ever seen. Still, other firms havent found nearly as wide a gap, and in any event, Kitzhaber remains the favorite. Finally, Fung went ballistic over Browns last poll, which had him down 11 points, but while he didnt provide any evidence beyond spittle-laced invective, perhaps he has a point anyway. In barely over a week, the race has collapsed into a tie, which doesnt make a lot of sense. However, Brown apparently tightened its likely voter screen, which makes comparing the two sets of numbers almost pointless. But if they feel their newer screen is more accurate, then thats double-plus-ungood for Raimondo. House: Polling: AK-AL: Ivan Moore (D): Forrest Dunbar (D) 46, Don Young (R-inc) 41 HI-01: Merriman River: Mark Takai (D) 45, Charles Djou (R) 45 (Sept.: 46-42 Djou) ME-02: Pan Atlantic SMS: Emily Cain (D) 39, Bruce Poloquin (R) 38 (Oct. 9: 36-33 Cain) NE-02: DFM Research (D): Brad Ashford (D) 46, Lee Terry (R-inc) 41 (conducted for SMART) NH-01: New England College: Frank Guinta (R) 49, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 43 (Oct. 21: 47-46 Guinta) NH-02: New England College: Annie Kuster (D-inc) 49, Marilinda Garcia (R) 42 (Oct. 20: 49-43 Kuster) NJ-02: Stockton College: Frank LoBiondo (R-inc) 53, Bill Hughes (D) 34 (Oct. 2: 47-42 LoBiondo) NY-21: Siena: Elise Stefanik (R) 50, Aaron Woolf (D) 32, Matt Funiciello (G) 11 (Sept.: 46-33 Stefanik) NY-24: Global Strategy Group (D): Dan Maffei (D-inc) 45, John Katko (R) 40 (conducted for Maffei) As much as we want to believe that Youngs horrific comments about suicide will cost him the election, its hard to see it. In 2008 with an ethics cloud hanging over his head, Young still defeated a credible Democratic challenger 50-45. Youngs ability to get money for his state gives him plenty of insulation against his worst tendencies, and Dunbar has little name recognition or money. Even if Democrats wanted to target Young late in the game they really cant: The high-stakes Senate race has ensured that theres almost no airtime left to reserve. Stocktons last poll found LoBiondo in an unexpectedly tough race against Hughes, but a recent Monmouth poll gave the congressman a comfortable 21-point lead. Stockton has ended this battle of the pollsters by defecting to Monmouths side, finding LoBiondo up 19 points. Sienas survey out of the Syracuse area NY-24 raised plenty of eyebrows. Its been clear for a while that Maffei had a real race on his hands, but it seems hard to believe that hes down 10; its also not very plausible that the race has swung 18 points in the GOPs direction in the space of a month. Maffei quickly released his won poll giving himself a 5-point edge. Not the most confronting lead, but its at least a sign that hes not doomed like Siena thinks. Siena also holds the record for the worst polling miss weve ever seen, so its not like theyre a gold standard for accuracy. Other Races: Chicago Mayor: After Teachers Union President Karen Lewis declined to run against Mayor Rahm Emanuel due to health reasons, anti-Rahm forces were left looking for a viable candidate. On Monday, they may have gotten one: Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia has announced that he will be running in the February 2015 election. If Garcia wants to prove that hes a serious opponent hell need to raise money very quickly: Rahm leads him $8.7 million to $15,000 in cash-on-hand. Grab Bag: On Wednesday evening, Daily Kos Elections Jeff Singer will lead a discussion on the races that will determine control of the U.S. Senate with the Tulane University Democrats. The event starts at 8:30 PM local time and is open to the public. Details here. Ads & Independent Expenditures: AK-Sen: The DSCC hits Republican Dan Sullivan again. AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryors hasnt polled well in a long time, but the DSCC isnt giving up on him (or someone at the DSCC owes Pryor a very large bar bet). The ad, which is running for over $1 million, continues to go after Republican Tom Cotton on Medicare. The NRSC has their own spot, yet again arguing that Pryor has become a Washington hack. CO-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Udall again. GA-Sen: The DSCC continues to go after Republican David Perdue on outsourcing, and EMILYs List does the same thing. Georgians Together also spends $150,000 for the Democrats. The NRSC hits back, with a direct quote from Obama declaring that if Democrat Michelle Nunn wins, that means that Democrats keep control of the Senate. Also for the GOP, Georgia One spends $215,000 linking Nunn to Obama. For once, its Coke not the Kochs who are attacking Democrats: Georgia One is largely funded by the head of Coca-Cola Enterprises. IA-Sen: For Team Blue we have Americans for Responsible Solutions and the NEA. For Team Red we have the NRSC, with the American Heartland PAC spending $100,000. KS-Sen: Rand PAC, which youll be shocked to know is Rand Pauls PAC, praises Republican Sen. Pat Roberts for opposing foreign aide to countries that hate us. The narrator notes that Roberts stood with Paul, which Im sure was thrown in there for reasons that dont involve hyping Rand Paul ahead of 2016. Roberts also goes after independent Greg Ormans business background, accusing him of being corrupt and heartless. Now Or Never PAC also spends $150,000 for the GOP. On the other side, Kansans Support Problem Solvers spends $122,000 for Orman. KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell continues his Im not the asshole you think I am ad campaign. And to be fair his newest ad is actually pretty funny. Also for the GOP, Kentucky Opportunity Coalition continues with their Democrat Alison Grimes is the liar we think she is, ad campaign, while the NRA continues their Lets cut and paste some candidate into our all-size-fits-all ad campaign. On the Democratic side, the DSCC returns to the airwaves after initially signaling that they had given up on this race. Their new spot features a schoolteacher going after McConnells record on jobs. MI-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends $221,000 for Democrat Gary Peters. The Humane Society also goes up with a spot for Peters, promoting his work combatting animal cruelty. NC-Sen: Crossroads GPS goes after Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, tying her to You Know Who (no, not Lord Voldemort). The DSCC in turn hits Republican Thom Tillis on education. SD-Sen: The NRSC just announced that it is declaring victory and pulling out of the race, but they throw in one extra shot at Democrat Rick Weiland before they go. On the Democratic side, MoveOn praises Weiland. VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespies campaign against Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has not gone incredibly well. Gillespie consistently trails in the polls and doesnt have enough money left to run a statewide ad campaign. Gillespies pretty desperate, so its not surprise hes throwing a truly stupid hail marry in his new spot. The narrator notes that Harry Reid is trying to get the Washington football team to change their name, and Warner wont say if he supports it. Gillespie then appears and declares, Ill oppose the anti-Redskins bill. He then calls for focusing on creating jobs and safety and let the Redskins handle what to call their team. The ad doesnt exactly make much sense: Warners not saying anything about this bill, so Virginia should someone who will focus on real issues and not football names? Whatever, its not like Gillespie has any other options but lose quietly. AK-Gov: Most spending in The Last Frontier has been directed at the U.S. Senate race, even though Republican Gov. Sean Parnell faces a tough fight against independent Bill Walker. One outside group is finally coming to Parnells rescue though. Citizens Against Walker, is spending $150,000 attacking Walker on Obamacare- I know, surprise, surprise. How much airtime the ad will actually get is unclear. The long and expensive Senate race has ensured that there isnt much ad time left to buy in Alaska, as Parnell himself is finding out the hard way. That isnt stopping the governor from running a cheap-looking ad against Walker. CT-Gov: Both national parties are airing another spot. The RGA accuses Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy of lying about the condition of the state economy and about raising taxes. The DGA goes after Republican Tom Foley, continuing to paint him as a selfish rich guy. FL-Gov: Quite a few Democrats are running ads featuring footage from their rally with Bill Clinton, but the Big Dog actually speaks directly to the audience in Charlie Crists newest spot. IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican Bruce Rauner of withholding a drug that could have saved infants lives so he could make money. Rauner appears with his wife, arguing hes not beholden to the special interests. KS-Gov: Kansas Values features former Republican state Senate President Dick Bond decrying Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, while praising Democrat Paul Davis. ME-Gov: The DGA goes after Republican Gov. Paul LePage as a bully who isnt helping the economy. WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker rolls out Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch to defend his administrations record on women. AZ-02: On the GOP side, we have the Congressional Leadership Fund once again invoking former Rep. Gabby Giffords to hit her successor Rep. Ron Barber. The spot begins with a woman declaring that Giffords had guts enough to vote against Pelosi, while Barber didnt. Giffords is a Barber supporter and cut an ad supporting him, though you wouldnt know it from the GOPs campaign. The NRCC also ties Barber to Obama and Pelosi, while praising Republican Martha McSally. CA-07: The contest in this suburban Sacramento district has attracted plenty of outside spending from both sides, and the free-spending Crossroads GPS continues to hit Democratic Rep. Ami Bera on Obamacare and Social Security. CA-52: The DCCC continues to accuse Republican Carl DeMaio of being a tea partier who pretends to be a moderate. House Majority PAC also spends $321,000 hitting DeMaio on the same theme. FL-02: House Majority PAC spends $81,000 against Republican Rep. Steve Southerland. IA-02: In recent days both the DCCC and NRCC have begun spending in this district, where until very recently Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack was the clear favorite to win another term. House Majority PAC is also joining in, and spending $129,000 against Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. IA-03: House Majority PAC spends $154,000 against Republican David Young. IL-10: House Majority PAC spends a hefty $611,000 going after Republican Bob Dold on womens healthcare. And no, we didnt get a single Bob Dold! here. IL-12: The Congressional Leadership Fund offers up a bland ad against Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart. IL-13: Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC recently canceled their ad reservations here, so it is a good sign that HMP is coming back. The group spends $113,000 hitting Republican Rep. Rodney Davis on congressional perks. LA-05: Zach Dasher, one of several Republicans competing in the Nov. 4 jungle primary, turns to his famous family for help (here and here). Both 15-second spots stars Dashers relative and Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson. The first features Robertson declaring bibles and guns brought us here, while the second ad has Robertson declaring that Dasher is a good man. MA-09: Republican John Chapman is a longshot against Democratic Rep. Bill Keating, and stories like this are the last thing he needs. Chapmans spot, which has since been pulled from the web, featured voters being unable to name Keating as their congressman to try and paint the Democrat as an absentee representative. The problem for Chapman is that one of the people he asked is mentally handicapped. Journalist Charlie Mathewson is the mans stepfather and took Chapman to task for it at a debate on Monday. Chapman claimed he didnt know that Mathewsons stepson is handicapped, but Mathewson didnt buy it and accused the Republican of taking advantage of his disability. Not a type of story Chapman wants in the closing days of the race. ME-02: House Majority PAC spends $296,000 arguing that Republican Bruce Poliquin is a corrupt Wall Street insider. The NRCC recently cut its reservations supporting Poliquin, but the decision may have had more to do with Poliquins wealth than the GOPs belief that the race was lost. MI-11: Democrat Bobby McKenzie continues to go after Republican Dave Trotts for getting rich off of foreclosures. MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson defends his independence while the GOPs Congressional Leadership Fund... doesnt. MN-08: The DCCC maintains that Republican Stewart Mill only got where he is by inheriting everything. NE-02: On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC spends $132,000 against Republican Rep. Lee Terry. The NRCC hits back, and continuing to portray Democrat Brad Ashford as someone who doesnt care about public safety. Terry himself runs against Obama, briefly throwing in a reference to Ashford at the end. Terry describes Obama as a disaster but he sang a very different tune in 2008, when he actively and successfully sought Obama-Terry voters. NH-02: House Majority PAC spends $272,000 arguing that Republican Marilinda Garcia is putting Social Security at risk. NJ-03: The American Action Network goes after Democrat Aimee Belgard for voting to lay off police officers. They start the spot with a shot of ISIS, employing some old fashioned and unsubtle fear mongering to make their point. NV-04: Republican Cresent Hardy offers us a very boring ad. Thanks to horrible Democratic turnout, he may win anyway. Crossroads GPS also goes after Democratic Rep. Steven Horsfords record in state legislature. NY-11: Despite initial Democratic hopes that Republican Rep. Michael Grimms April indictment would give them an automatic pickup, that hasnt happened. House Majority PAC is spending a hefty $1.7 million to try and put Grimm away once and for all. Their spot brings up Grimms upcoming trial as well as his voting record. Republicans have barely spent anything in this Staten Island seat, which makes Grimms resilience all the more concerning. NY-19: Republican Rep. Chris Gibson has posted clear leads against Democrat Sean Eldridge, but Gibson still is attacking his rival. Maybe hes just being careful, but it is interesting that the NRCC has also devoted resources to this district late in the game. NY-24: House Majority PAC spends $175,000 against Republican John Katko. WI-06: Democrat Mark Harris recently made some news with his very hard-hitting ad highlighting Republican Glenn Grothmans history of insane comments and legislation. Harris doesnt have much money and his Romney 53-46 seat isnt too friendly to Democrats, but Grothman apparently takes Harris seriously enough to attack him. The spot predictably frames the race as a choice between an Obama supporter and a conservative. WV-02: In a year where Democrats are on the defensive across West Virginia, the GOP has had a surprisingly tough time holding onto this open seat. Of course, the fact that Republican nominee Alex Mooney is a carpetbagger from Maryland may have something to do with it. The NRCC is coming to Mooneys defense, and goes after Democrat Nick Caseys lobbying career and of course links him to Obama. NRCC: GOP expenditures. The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
Posted on: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 18:26:10 +0000
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