Die beste aktuelle Einschätzung (Link unten) gepaart mit der besten historischen Einschätzung aus 1995(!) The Ukraine is the only republic which might have the strength to resist Russian pressure, with 52 million people, a GDP the size of Belgium and the third largest army in Europe. But the Ukraine, also, will be unable to resist Russias embraces. The Ukrainian economy is in a worse mess than Russias. So much so that a large part of the population, especially in the East, wants to join with Russia. That is the case, not only in Crimea, which subsequently voted in a pro-Russian government, but with the all important Donbass coalminers. The Ukraine has practically achieved independence, but is still tied to Russia by economic factors, and a significant Russian minority (21 per cent) within its borders. Without access to Russian markets and raw materials (oil, minerals, etc.) the economy would collapse. The cutting off of energy by Russia had disastrous effects on the Ukraine, which if it had continued would have doomed the country. Even if it succeeds in establishing some minor markets in the West, this could not compensate for the loss of the Russian market. On the other hand, without the resources of the Ukraine, the Russian economy would also be in difficulties. The Ukraine was the bread basket and industrial locomotive of the former Soviet Union, occupying a position far more important than the Baltic States or the Caucasus. The strength of the Ukrainian armed forces is also relative. No fewer than 80 per cent of its officers are Russians. Furthermore, the Ukraine is entirely dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas and is deeply in debt to its neighbour, a fact they were reminded of when Moscow interrupted the supplies causing disruption to both industry and private consumers. If supplies of gas were cut off altogether, one-third of Ukrainian industry would be shut down. In practice, Ukraine cannot stand alone against Russia. Probably, it will have to come to an arrangement, along the lines of Belarus. It was no accident that within a week of the 1991 attempted coup, Yeltsin announced the possible revision of the borders of the Russian Republic. And if Ukraine cannot maintain itself, still less will the tiny Baltic States be able to. The West may grumble and utter veiled threats, but in reality it is powerless to do anything about it. The move towards capitalism in the Ukraine has been extremely slow. The majority of the economy remains in the state sector. Although the West gave $5 billion, President Kuchma appears to be dragging his feet in face of large-scale opposition from the bureaucracy, who are intent on holding onto their power. The currency has experienced massive devaluation, with hyper-inflation and the flight of capital of between $10 billion and $12 billion since independence. As the Financial Times (30/8/95) commented: Four years after independence, Europes second largest country after Russia has yet to stabilise the economy, let alone see the benefits of reform. After a good start, the economic overhaul faces mounting opposition from the powerful industrialists and bureaucrats who depend on the patronage of the state. The pressures will increase for a return to the good old days and closer links with Russia. In an attempt to appease the military caste, Yeltsin has raised the issue of protecting the 25 million Russian-speakers who live outside the borders of the Russian Federation. If this was not sufficiently clear, it was spelled out by Valery Galeyko, leader of the Russian-speaking association of Pavlodar in Kazakhstan: We need dual citizenship to restore the destroyed Soviet Union, he told the Financial Times (20/12/93). Already most of the former Republics have come back into Russias orbit. As The Economist (18/9/93) pointed out: Six CIS members have been forced into signing defence treaties with Russia. Five have volunteered to transfer sovereignty to Russia in the hope of reviving their economies through reintegration with it. Non-members are asking to join the CIS, bringing them into Russias clumsy embrace. Of the 15 republics of the former Soviet Union, only three on the Baltic—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are managing to make a clean break. This agreement goes further than a free trade zone. It means, in effect, that these Republics have ceded monetary sovereignty to Russia, rebuilding the rouble zone shattered last year. In fact, Belarus has unified its monetary system with Russias. Thus, everywhere, Russia is reasserting itself in its old spheres of influence. Despite talk of compromise, Yeltsin opposed the entry of Eastern European states into NATO, demanded the right to deploy more tanks along Russias southern borders and threatened to break the agreement on conventional disarmament in Europe. In addition, he offered Russia as the guarantor for peace in the Former Soviet Union. The moment has come, announced Yeltsin in March 1993, when the respective international organs should grant Russia special powers as the guarantor of peace and stability on the territory of the former Soviet Union. (Izvestia, 4/3/93.) All this is a reflection of the rising power of the Russian military. Despite the acute financial crisis, defence spending in Russia virtually doubled in 1993, as a percentage of GDP, from 4 per cent in 1992 to 7.5 per cent. In the event of the re-establishment of capitalism in Russia, we would see the rise of a ferocious imperialist power. Russia cannot be democratic and capitalist at the same time. A military dictatorship in Russia would inevitably embark on an aggressive policy of expansion, on the lines of Tsarism in the past. Apart from the Ukraine, which could also end up under the domination of a military dictatorship, the independence of the former states of the CIS would be largely fictitious. Inevitably they would fall under the control of Russian imperialism, by one means or another. Under capitalism, the Republics would not be able to resist the pull of the powerful Russian economy, which could draw them inexorably into its orbit. In any case, in all likelihood, a coup in Moscow would be followed by a coup in Kiev. (...)
Posted on: Mon, 03 Nov 2014 06:13:46 +0000
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