Does it strike anyone else as odd that there are trading sites that exist to solely bet upon elections around the world? -------------------------- ----------------------------- ------------------------------ "Intrade is a political prediction market, like a stock exchange tracking the odds of political outcomes. Participants essentially wager on who will win or lose a vote, with the volume and direction of the trades serving as a barometer for likely outcomes. For example, a contract to pay $100 if Obama won the election, sold at $80, implies an 80 percent chance of an Obama victory. Intrade successfully predicted 49 of 50 state presidential results in 2012." "The Ireland-based exchange closed to American traders in November after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against the site." "During the campaign, Intrade presented a conspicuously large gap on Romney options between its prices and those on Betfair, a rival site based in the United Kingdom. Gaps like this allow traders to arbitrage away risk by betting in different directions in each exchange. In an efficient market, those gaps close quickly."
Posted on: Sun, 29 Sep 2013 00:20:35 +0000
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