Don’t know if this has already been mentioned but I’ve been looking over the Mail on Sunday/Survation poll. The referendum and commonwealth games results don’t seem that surprising but the results about the televised debates do. “The same survey also asked voters their opinion on this week’s head-to-head televised debate between First Minister Alex Salmond and leader of the pro-union Better Together campaign Alistair Darling. Mr Salmond was backed by 37% of voters to come out on top, with one in ten predicting Mr Darling would triumph.” Looking at the actual poll reveals that only 24% of No voters expect Darling to come out on top, for the undecided this is only 0.3%. This is really quite low (compare to nearly 70% Yes voters expecting Salmond to triumph). Is Darling really the underdog in this? There doesn’t seem to be that much expectation in him; that people already don’t think he’s likely to do well. People seem to predict that a good showing from Salmond is likely to swing the vote in favour of Yes. However, even before this debate people are already expecting a good showing from Salmond and not expecting much from Darling. No is still leading in the polls despite this perception. What would Tuesday really change or show up? If anything a reasonable showing for Darling has more chance of sparking an increase in his support than it is for Salmond who is already going in to this strong. I don’t know but this is something worth thinking about. What do you think? scotsman/news/politics/top-stories/poll-no-games-effect-on-scottish-independence-vote-1-3497712 survation/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-Poll-Aug-3rd-MOS-Without-Demographics.pdf
Posted on: Sun, 03 Aug 2014 19:04:01 +0000
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