ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ALONG A 40-45 KT WSWLY LLJ AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...TO AS HIGH AS 1500-3000 J/KG ALONG THE OH VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...LAKE-BREEZE FRONTS AND EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A STEADILY STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...PERHAPS EVEN SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FOCUSED.
Posted on: Mon, 07 Jul 2014 13:30:55 +0000
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