EUR / USD. Bears are Back on Bike The loss of the single currency in relation to the US dollar yesterday equaled 3 figures – the pair set a new 11-year low at around 1.1313. The reason of it was the proclamation of the long-awaited quantitative easing program. Many market participants were surprised with the determination showed by the European regulator. The European QE will begin in March and will be completed in September 2016. The volume of monthly purchases will be 60 billions euros. Now bears hold all the cards as evidenced by the clear trend acceleration in the form of quotes consolidation outside the long-term trend (see fig.). Now the highest priority has the work for the rebound from the boundaries of trading channel formed in recent weeks with the expected results, when it is recommended to sell when approaching the line of resistance and then when confirming the rebound from it with the help of indicators. At the moment, the opposite boundary of the channel is reached, and here it would be appropriate to fix the result of the short position. Also today, it is impossible not to draw attention to the publication of data on the business activity in manufacturing and service sector. Volatility: 24% Trend: bearish Fundamental background: medium GOLD. Fibonacci Decides most Everything After gold price has reached the minimum over the past 4 year, it finally started to grow. Whether market participants were so sensitive to correction in global stock markets (they needed to settle in their money somewhere for not to keeping them in cache), or whether the achievement of the important Fibo level 61.8% from the large-scale rally observed in the period 2008-2011 has done its work. We note that in 2011 the historical maximum (1920 dollars per ounce) was established. Currently we see the previous downward movement breaking and the development of the upward movement within the channel. By itself, the turning point was by the classical scheme when at first the head and shoulders reversal pattern was formed, and then it was a breakthrough of its graphical boundaries (neck) upward. Anyway, there are some problems in the uprise development (which does not change the general direction), because on the one hand quotes reached the channel line of the current upward trend, and on the other the level of expansion 161.8% of the initial pulse of November-December 2014 was achieved. Thus, it is recommended to take profits on long positions, waiting for lawful correction of the January upward impulse. Volatility: 80% Trend: bullish Fundamental background: medium
Posted on: Fri, 23 Jan 2015 10:00:11 +0000
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