Economic progress requires an end to cult of personality by Ronak Gopaldas, August 05 2013, 06:11 * Clip this article Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. Picture: REUTERS Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. Picture: REUTERS In this article * * * * People: Robert Mugabe AFRICA’s recent progress in terms of political stability through the introduction of human rights-based regimes, improving economies and sound governance, could soon be plunged into uncertain territory if the looming challenge of political succession in many sub-Saharan countries is not managed. From Zimbabwe and Angola in the south, to Rwanda and Uganda in the east and Cameroon and Burkina Faso in the west, these countries are all dominated by personality politics, characterised by weak institutions and limited adherence to constitutional processes. The sudden passing of their long-serving leaders represents a risk due to increased uncertainty and could precipitate political crisis and economic upheaval. The death of a leader results in uncertainty about whether these transitions will be orderly or disorderly, violent or nonviolent, and whether they will usher in wholesale change or a maintenance of the status quo. Closest to home, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s longevity will come into question in the medium term. The longer he stays in power, the greater the hurdle a successor will have to overcome to keep Zanu (PF) running smoothly. It is still not clear which faction in the party will win in the contest to succeed Mugabe. Securocrats have emerged in the jockeying for power and would like Mugabe to be succeeded by a person with strong security accomplishments. The lack of party succession planning, compounded by a scramble for power, could bode ill for both the party and the country. In many ways, Mugabe is the glue that holds the warring factions of the party together and speculation is rife that the "real" chaos will ensue only once he is gone. Rumours of a possible succession plan were the dominant theme in Angola before the country’s election last year. In the end, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos again ran at the top of the party’s electoral list, guaranteeing his re-election. Manuel Vicente, the former CE of the state oil company, Sonangol, and present vice-president, is now seen to be the favourite to succeed Dos Santos when he decides to eventually move on. The potential appointment of Vicente would result in policy continuity. However, Vicente is a polarising figure who does not have the support of all the factions in the MPLA and lacks the popular appeal among the old guard of military veterans. Ructions in the party about his impending ascension indicate a smooth transition is far from certain. A possible alternative is to groom Dos Santos’s eldest son, Jose Filomeno, for the presidency. While this smacks of nepotism, it could be the first stage in a process that would ensure orderly family succession, speaking to the principle of "dynastic democracy". Early indications are that a managed and orderly transition will be the most likely scenario in Angola, given the control and influence that Dos Santos and his inner circle exert over the state machinery. Uganda’s political environment, while relatively stable, remains far from healthy. Critics often point to the absence of strong political institutions, the overbearing influence of the executive and the ever-present shadow of the army, as proof of this. This has allowed President Yoweri Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement to stay in power for more than 25 years by winning successive, one-sided elections. He first seized power in 1986 in an armed rebellion. So far, Museveni has maintained control by getting parliament to remove a clause in the constitution that limits the head of state to a maximum of two five-year terms in office. He seems unperturbed by criticism of his long tenure and the absence of a "level" political playing field where opposition parties can flourish. Instead, Museveni insists he is the best person to lead Uganda and he refuses to discuss his possible successor. This situation has led the opposition to engage in regular protests to highlight some of the government’s shortcomings, resulting in violent standoffs from time to time. There have been rumours that he will eventually hand power to his son, Kaneirugaba Muhoozi, who was recently promoted to brigadier-general. Given the nation’s role in regional security initiatives, he could turn out to be a significant player. In Rwanda, the former rebel movement has consolidated its grip on power by securing victories in successive elections. The elections have been widely criticised for being stage-managed to maintain the status quo of minority Tutsi dominance at the expense of the Hutu majority that began after the 1994 genocide. The government is intolerant of criticism of its authority and uses vague genocide laws to sideline them. President Paul Kagame is a strong military figure and has shaped the country in his image, maintaining strong control over all state organs. He is unlikely to relinquish power in the 2017 elections and will be "voted in" for a third, seven-year term. Volatile West Africa exhibits many similar traits. Since the 1960s, Cameroon has had only two presidents. Paul Biya has been in power since 1982 and has ensured that much of the decision-making powers are centralised in an authoritarian fashion, casting doubt over the effectiveness of democratic institutions. Considering the length of a term in office, Biya could very well be incapacitated at this point, which could lead to an uncertain transition. Should Biya die, there will be no choice but to hold elections within 120 days. The question of who will be acting president is expected to cause political infighting. This could, however, open up talks to better the democratic process under new leadership. In Burkina Faso, President Blaise Compaoré’s term ends in 2015, after 27 years in power. If he tries to run for a new mandate without seeking constitutional changes to term limits, the country could experience instability. These countries could use the lessons learnt last year, an eventful year in African politics, with Ghana, Ethiopia and Malawi all seeing the passing of sitting presidents, followed by relatively smooth transitions. In Ghana, the manner in which this news was communicated, and the speed at which the succession issue was addressed, spoke to the maturity of its political system. Constitutional due process was observed in Accra after John Atta Mills’s sudden death, with John Dramani Mahama, the vice-president, being sworn into office hours later. In Ethiopia, the death of prime minister Meles Zenawi in August last year took the country into uncharted territory. However, concerns over succession plans dissipated after the election of Hailemariam Desalegn to the post. The handover was relatively peaceful. In Malawi, Joyce Banda succeeded Bingu wa Mutharika as president, a demonstration of constitutional rule. This was not without controversy and required some deft manoeuvring to avert army interference. In the context of rising economic interest in Africa, it is crucial that transitions are managed in an orderly fashion. The continent’s economic prosperity hinges on the maintenance of political stability. The building of strong institutions, complemented by politically neutral militaries and the development of a political culture with respect for the rule of law and constitutional principles, is imperative in allowing Africa to shed its image as a conflict-ridden continent and continue attracting long-term investment. With much at stake, it would be a great shame if messy transitions became the status quo after such strong recent progress. • Gopaldas is a sovereign risk analyst at Rand Merchant Bank.
Posted on: Mon, 05 Aug 2013 09:15:53 +0000
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