Estimated Alawites Population of Syria The percentage of the Alawite population in Syria has been controversial. The following is an attempt to provide a reasonable estimate based on extrapolating numbers from available statistics In the year 1943 the French conducted a comprehensive and detailed census of all sects in Syria. Many sources including Wikipedia list the result of that census which is the only available census that list all Syrian population by sects. The result of that census shows total population of Syria of 2,860,000 and is divided as the following: Sunnis 1,971,000 69% Alawite 325,300 11.4% Christians 403,000 14% Druze 87,200 3% Ismaili 28,500 1% Shia Twelver 12,700 0.5% Others 1% Since 1943, no census in Syria counted different sects but counted population by governorates. Using data from Syrian Arab Republic Central Bureau of Statistics at citypopulation.de/Syria.html , growth rates are calculated based on population numbers between year 1981 and year 2011 (30 years)*: The overall population growth rate for Syria according to the Syrian Bureau of Statistics is 2.91% per year. However, there are significant variations of growth rates among different Governorates. The highest growth rates are in Der Azzor, 3.76%. Followed by Darrah, 3.53%, and Raqqah 3.38%. The lowest growth rates are in Tartus: 1.98% , and in Lattakia: 2.01%. Since the governorates of Lattakia and Tartus, and especially Tartus, are known to have a majority Alawite population, it is reasonable to assume that population growth rate among Alawites is similar to growth rate in Lattakia and Tartus (around 2%), with adjustment for the migration out of the Alawite heartland (The principal destination of Alawite migration is Damascus, including the city and the suburbs). I started with calculating the current population of Alawites before adjustment of migration out of the Alawite heartland: 325,300 (Alawite population in 1943) multiplied by 2% per year and compounded over 70 years (1943 to 2013) = 1,301,056 Estimating the number of Alawite migration outside the heartland is problematic. To my knowledge, there was no major migration of Alawites into Governorates other than Damascus. The known large Alawite community in the city of Homs is not known to have increased beyond the natural growth rate of the existing population. The growth rate of Homs governorate is 2.68 %, below the national average. which indicates no major migration into Homs. For Damascus, the overall growth rate (combining the city and Damascus countryside) is 2.76 %, below the national average of 2.91%. Which again indicates that migration of Alawites into Damascus although large, is not very large, especially considering that Damascus is a recipient of migrants from all sects and all Governorates of Syria. By looking at satellite pictures and comparing the size of the predominantly Alawite areas in metropolitan Damascus to the overall heavily populated areas, I estimated a 200,000 in the Damascus area. Adding another 100,000 for Alawite migration into governorates other than Damascus, the overall estimated population of Alawite is: 1,301,056 + 300,000 = 1,601,000 Syria in 2013 is 22,000,000 Alawites percentage = 1,601,000 / 22,000,000 = 7.3% In conclusion, the widely publicized estimate of the Alawite population of 12% in Syria assumes that growth rate for Alawite population is higher than growth rate for Syria in general which is inaccurate. The reason for lower growth rate for Alawites is probably urbanization with employment in government ministries and in the army and security services resulting in lower birth rate and smaller size of families compared to traditional rural farming employment. That is not to say that growth rate of 2% is low, but it is lower than the astonishingly very high growth rate of 3.76% in Deir al Zour for example. * ncalculators/interest/compound-interest-calculator.htm
Posted on: Mon, 08 Jul 2013 23:07:53 +0000
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