Event: Hydrologic Outlook Alert: ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER... SYNOPSIS... ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...TEMPERATURES FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL. JANUARY WAS THE COLDEST MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WINTER WILL GO DOWN AS THE 7TH COLDEST ON RECORD FOR GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...AND HATTIESBURG AND THE 8TH COLDEST ON RECORD AT VICKSBURG/TALLULAH. RAINFALL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT OUR OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITES...RAINFALL RANGED FROM 0.91 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AT MERIDIAN TO 6.11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT TALLULAH/VICKSBURG. THE DRIEST AREAS WERE NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THE DRY WINTER HAS LEFT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME WEST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE YAZOO DELTA REGION. ELSEWHERE...SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY AR TO NATCHEZ MS... SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 6 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NORTHEAST IOWA, AND NORTH ILLINOIS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. RECENT STORMS HAVE GENERATED SNOW DEPTH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE JUNCTION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS WERE LIGHTER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO, MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES. THIS SNOW SHOULD MELT OVER THE COMING DAYS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH POCKETS OF ABOVE NORMAL OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER MISSOURI AND RED RIVER VALLEY HAVE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON. WARMER TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOW IN THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WELL-BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE CRESTS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOWMELT AND RAIN ARE APPROACHING ARKANSAS CITY ARKANSAS. SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS: 3/5 MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEBES IL 71% OHIO RIVER CAIRO IL 114% MISSISSIPPI RIVER MEMPHIS TN 105% MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARKANSAS CITY AR 107% MISSISSIPPI RIVER VICKSBURG MS 115% MISSISSIPPI RIVER NATCHEZ MS 118% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS. OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA... STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS AND NEAR NORMAL IN LOUISIANA. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THATCHER LOCK & DAM ON THE MIDDLE OUACHITA RIVER. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 OUACHITA RIVER MONROE LA 72% BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW PORTLAND AR 93% BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW JONES LA 80% TENSAS TENDAL LA 14% PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IN THE UPPER OUACHITA IS GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 LAKE OUACHITA AR 100% DEGRAY RES. AR 100% LAKE GRESSON AR 100% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS WHICH INCLUDES THE TENSAS RIVER...BAYOU MACON...BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW...AND THE BOEUF RIVER. BIG BLACK RIVER AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS... MINOR RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE WINTER HAS CAUSED SEASONAL FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER BUT DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE HOMOCHITTO HAS HAD ABUNDANT RAINFALL WITH SIGNIFICANT BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE RISES. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ALONG EITHER RIVER SYSTEM AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 BIG BLACK RIVER WEST MS 64% BIG BLACK RIVER BOVINA MS 43% HOMOCHITTO RIVER ROSETTA MS 94% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE BIG BLACK AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS. YAZOO RIVER BASIN... STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 BIG SUNFLOWER 55% PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 ARKABUTLA RES. MS 91% SARDIS RES. MS 88% ENID RES. MS 88% GRENADA RES. MS 92% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN. PEARL RIVER BASIN... PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE PEARL RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NEW FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 PEARL RIVER CARTHAGE MS 63% PEARL RIVER JACKSON MS 32% PEARL RIVER MONTICELLO MS 46% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN. PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF...CHUNKY...AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS... HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED PERIODS OF MINOR FLOODING OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 LEAF RIVER HATTIESBURG MS 71% TALLAHALA CREEK LAUREL MS 88% CHICKASAWHAY RIVER ENTERPRISE MS 73% BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER PASCAGOULA BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF...CHICKASAWHAY...CHUNKY RIVER AND TALLAHALA CREEK. TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE NOXUBEE RIVER AND THE TIBBEE AND LUXAPALLILA CREEKS... RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH NO FLOODING ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS IN THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW: 3/5 TOMBIGBEE RIVER BIGBEE MS 49% LUXAPALLILA CREEK COLUMBUS MS 72% NOXUBEE RIVER MACON MS 84% BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS... AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE AND TRIBUTARIES IN MISSISSIPPI. EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ARKLAMISS REGION. THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION WHILE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014. NOTE: STREAMFLOW DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. Instructions: Target Area: Catahoula Concordia East Carroll Franklin Madison Morehouse Richland Tensas West Carroll Issued by The National Weather Service office in Jackson, Mississippi
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 17:21:17 +0000
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