Excerpt from todays NWS forecast discussion (230840Z). Particularly given that theres some chance of an epic snowstorm, Ill be monitoring this closely and will do a video if warranted. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT CAMPS REGARDING THE TRACK OF EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING OCEAN STORM TUE NIGHT. GFS/GGEM/UKMET ARE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST WITH CENTER PASSING MORE THAN 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK WITH GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE... WHILE ECMWF INDICATING A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WITH WESTERN LOW TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT GFS HAS SUPPORT OF MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO CAPE/ISLANDS. THE ECMWF... WHILE AN EXTREME SOLUTION AND A LOWER PROBABILITY... WOULD BE AN EPIC SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN NEW ENG. VERY COMPLEX INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW QUICKLY THIS PHASING OCCURS WILL DETERMINE IF STORM CAN GET PULLED BACK TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK. STILL CANT DISCOUNT ANY MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF IMPACT FOR SNE. CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR STORM IS HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE WEST. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF TRACK... ALL MODELS SHOW BOMBOGENESIS TUE NIGHT WITH 12 HR PRES FALLS AROUND 30 MB AND 18 HR PRES FALLS NEAR 40 MB WHICH IS QUITE REMARKABLE. MODELS HAVE SUB 970 MB LOW CROSSING OUR LATITUDE WED MORNING AND SUB 960 MB APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 10:53:50 +0000
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