Expect Downside Surprises From China, Oil in ’15: Best of KassBy twocents@thestreet (Doug Kass) NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary. This past week, Kass publishedBy twocents@thestreet (Doug Kass) NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary. This past week, Kass published a runner-up list of predictions for 2015 ahead of his official 15 Surprises for 2015 list, due this week. Atop the also-ran list, Kass sees China growth sinking below 5% in the New Year. Must Read: Heres How Much Money You Need to Hire a Financial Advisor Originally published on Dec. 26, 2015 at 7:32 a.m. EST 10 Also-Ran Surprises for 2015 On Monday I will deliver my 15 Surprises for 2015. I think it is my most interesting list in years. Here are my 10 also-ran Surprises for 2015 that I had considered but didnt make the top 15. Chinas real GDP growth falls below 5% in 2015 as economic growth decelerates markedly in the second half of the year. An accounting discrepancy is found at Alibaba . The shares plummet and the hedge fund community feels the pain. Under pressure from suppliers and a falling stock price, Ron Johnson is installed as CEO of Sears Holdings . George Soros makes $2.5 billion by shorting German Bunds. The price of crude oil drops below $40 a barrel in the second half of 2015. The consumer price index turns negative (year over year). IBM whiffs and the share price drops below $125 a share. Berkshire Hathaway suffers a near-$4 billion loss (on paper). At Buffetts suggestion, senior management is replaced. Warren Buffett announces his successor. Uber goes public at a $50 billion capitalization. The share price never exceeds the IPO price in 2015. Monitises subscription adds far outpace expectations this year. (The shares double in price.) Must Read: Dow 18,000: Why This Market Rally May Never Happen Again Originally published on Dec. 23, 2014 at 12:59 p.m. EST Back Buying Northwest This is a conservative holding. I am back buying Northwest Bancshares based on the following considerations: * The price of crude may be bottoming -- NWBI is positioned in Western Pennsylvanias shale country. * The recent add-on acquisition is a wise one and expands the bank geographically into the Cleveland and Akron markets. The deal was done at an attractive price (at only an 8% premium to last sale.) * The stock has lagged the regional and money center bank groups. * I continue to admire the holding companys capital strategy of returning capital (regular and special dividends) to shareholders. * A reasonable yield (above) and an active repurchase program. This is a conservative holding, and my objective is for a 10%+ return over the next 12 months. The bank is a potential takeover candidate and its private market value is likely in the $16 to $17 per share area. Must Read: 10 Stocks to Buy on Strong GDP Data Click to view a price quote on BABA. Click to research the Health Services industry. facebook/pages/p/225252027684392
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 21:02:53 +0000
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