FORECAST FOR Wed. JULY 10 and Thurs. JULY 11: ALBERTA...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL AB. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA, AND WITH SFC WINDS SWITCHING TO SE LATER THIS MORNING THAT MOISTURE IS ONLY GOING TO GET DEEPER. DEW POINTS ARE ESTIMATED TO RISE TO 16-18 CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CREATES SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG. A LOW AND TROF WILL FORM TO THE WEST OF EDMONTON, AND A 35 KT 500MB JET OVER EDMONTON ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT. STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE GRANDE CACHE AND WHITECOURT REGIONS, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION SW OF EDMONTON ALONG THE SFC TROF. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH EAST, BUT EASTERLY FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITH SRH VALUES IN THE 150-250 M2/S2 RANGE. WITH THESE HIGH SRH VALUES COMBINED WITH LCLS LESS THAN 1500 M, STRONG ROTATING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO JUST TO THE WEST AND NEAR EDMONTON MAY BE A POSSIBILITY. RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING FOR EDMONTON AND AREAS WEST TO WHITECOURT, GUSTS TO 90 KM/H ARE LIKELY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS THE SK BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF RED DEER THE PROVINCE IS CAPPED AND LACKING MOISTURE, SO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL EXPERIENCE A WARM SUNNY DAY! SK...INCREASING CAPE/SHEAR VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN ALBERTA...WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS...SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WEST-CENTRAL SK. SK/MB THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK IN ERN SK/ WRN MB AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR BRING 20+ DEWPOINTS INTO AREA, GIVING PROGGED SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND FAVOURABLE HODOGRAPH PROFILES. IF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP (NOT A GIVEN), DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY UNDERGOING UPSCALE GROWTH TO A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT. ERN ARCTIC...LOW CURRENTLY IN ERN HUDSON BAY DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC, BRINGING GALES TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC WATERS, AS WELL AS UP TO 20 MM OF RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. WRN ARCTIC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NWT WITH UP TO 10-20 MM BY THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NON SEVERE IN NATURE.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 17:36:18 +0000
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