FREE CAULFIELD CUP TIPS & ANALYSIS Race 9 - Caulfield Cup What a week it’s been in the lead up to the Cup. After our top pick Dandino was pulled another 3 followed suit, including the highly fancied Bande. With the Japanese staying star out, it completely changes the complex of the race with Seismos or Lidari now expected to go forward from inside draws. Top 10 1st Lucia Valentina This 4YO mare has one of the fastest turns of foot I’ve seen in a long time. She was super in the Turnbull when she wasn’t even 100% fit, the sectionals speak for themselves, the fastest 800-finish by far. Drawn well and will need a lot of speed up front. With just 53kg she is going to rocket home. Looks the one to beat for mine and will take a mighty effort to run her down. 2nd Hawkspur Last year’s $4 Caulfield Cup favorite is back, this time as an outside shot and very much in great form. Has been gradually building towards this race, winning 3 starts back at the Mile, Two back he settled midfield and finished alongside Lucia Valentina whilst his last start in the Turnbull, well… just forget that run! He got way too far back and was never in the frame. With the speed on today in a solid run race, he looks to be drawn ideally and will slot in much closer today. With Ollie onboard we think he is a top 3 chance and one of our main picks. 3rd Brambles After getting a start, Luke Nolen jumped across from Lidari to Brambles, which is always a good sign. Very impressive in the Turnbull and has shown he can win at the distance, with a fantastic win as a 3YO in the Queensland Derby. Drawn ideally and maps well for mine. Needs a carrier best effort here, but that’s not out the question, because his form is close to carrier best. 4th Admire Rakti Ran within a length this time last year of Gentildonna in the Japan Cup who would start as a $3 favourite here. Consistent, races well fresh and proven at the distance. Has the class to win this, the only query is how we will handle the hot Cup tempo and being first up in Australia. 5th Seismos Always hard to gauge the form of a European first up in Australia. They can either come and destroy our fields, or they can flop and not come on. His 1st up form needs to be respected, recently beating Willing Foe and Red Cadeaux in a G3 at Newbury in the UK. Best runs have come on the firm tracks and should go forward from his inside draw. Has shown that he is a stayer and can provide a very quite turn of foot. If your looking for a value outside shot, then look no further. 6th Lidari Been gradually building up for this race, with all 4 runs this prep fantastic. Looked home in the Turnbull and fought to the line hard to hold off Brambles. Should go forward again but I just think the pressure of a hot run race may be too much. Should get the ideal run and will most likely sit 1 off the leaders on the rail before making a claim. 7th Junoob Conditions look ideal today for Junoob. Comes in off a G1 win in the Metrop in Sydney where he lead from the 400m. We expect the race to be run at a similar tempo, if not quicker. Although his win was a bold effort last start, we expect the company today to be much more challenging. Top international jockey onboard which is always a bonus. He is a fighter, so we expect him to be hard to run down. 8th Moriarty Another from the Waller yard who comes back at a 2nd Caulfield Cup tilt. Absolutely loves a firm track, placing at well over 50% of his 32 starts on a GOOD. Ran down Rising Romance a fortnight ago in Sydney and gets a 1kg swing in his advantage today. Should go 3 back on the rail and if he can get a run, he’ll be in the finish. 9th Rising Romance Don’t think she’ll be of match to some of these horses. Weighted well though and if she can get across for an easy lead then it puts her into contention. Won’t be good enough to swoop home the tail, so McDonald can only pray to get across early with ease, which I don’t think will be a likely outcome. Top 10 hope. 10th Stipulate Gets every chance today to Map close enough to the speed, drawn in barrier 5. Finished strongly in the Turnbull and was a solid winner here a few months back over Brambles over the 1700m. Unknown at the distance but will be a Top 10 hope. Suggested Bets Lucia Valentina WIN $6 - 2 stakes - Tom Waterhouse* *Enhanced odds, $50 MAX BET Sign up to Tom Waterhouse to get a enhanced odds tiny.cc/TW250 Hawkspur WIN $17 - 2 stake or FREE $50 BET - Beteasy Get your FREE $50 BET thanks to Beteasy NO DEPOSIT REQUIRED -> tiny.cc/caulfieldcup Admire Rakti WIN $12 - 0.50 stake - Sportsbet* *Money Back if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to $100 Sign up to Sportsbet to get a free bet up to $501 tiny.cc/sportsbet501 Brambles WIN $9 - 0.50 stake - Luxbet* *If your horse finishes 1st or 2nd you will be paid as a win! Sign up to Luxbet and get a deposit bonus up to $500 tiny.cc/luxbet500 EXOTIC NUMBERS 1,7,8,9,10,14,15,19
Posted on: Sat, 18 Oct 2014 01:27:15 +0000
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