FXUS62 KFFC 120210 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 910 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014 .EVENING UPDATE... A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE MOISTURE STARVED... SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THEY WILL HELP KEEP WINDS AND MIXING UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO WARRANT TWEAKING LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK... SO NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. /39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SOMEWHAT STATIC UPPER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY EASES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS KEEPS GEORGIA UNDER MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW TO BEGIN WITH... WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS KEEPS THE SURFACE RIDGE GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER A GRADUAL BUT STEADY WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISE. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. 20 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGING AND GRADUAL WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FEELING JUSTIFIED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS THIS HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH RAPIDLY DAMPENS THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL DRAPES A MORE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN NUDGING CLOSER TO THE GFS THOUGH HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE AND SLOWER ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES MORE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...THERE IS STILL HIGH SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. GOING FOR WIDESPREAD 40-50 PERCENT POPS OF SHOWERS WITH CURRENT FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR INTO MIDWEEK. BAKER AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 620 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014/ 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 10KTS. AN OCNL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18KTS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 28 57 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 33 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 25 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 27 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 31 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 MACON 27 58 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 27 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 29 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 31 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20/39 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...39 daculaweather
Posted on: Fri, 12 Dec 2014 02:12:04 +0000
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