FXUS62 KFFC 140241 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 941 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 .EVENING UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS WELL ON TRACK. 39 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... /ISSUED AT 245 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014/ UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY AIR LINGERING OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS FOR THIS. AS A RESULT...THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON WAS EXPANDED WEST AND SOUTH. NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/MET MAX TEMPERATURES SHOW A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MET NUMBERS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER NUMBERS FOR MAXES...SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO BE COOLER. 41 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER OVER GA SUN NIGHT WHICH MOVES EAST ON MON. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING IT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. APPROACHING GA MON NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE STATE ON TUE. A BRIEF SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...PWS NEAR ONE INCH...WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH GA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS. NO TSTMS ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER GA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THU WILL MOVE EAST WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER GA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS AT THIS TIME. MOS POPS AND TEMPS ACCEPTED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. 16/01 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 648 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014/ 00 UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KTS OR LESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. //ATL CONFIDENCE... 00Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 33 62 34 61 / 0 0 5 0 ATLANTA 36 60 37 63 / 0 0 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 27 60 30 60 / 0 0 5 5 CARTERSVILLE 28 56 30 62 / 0 0 5 10 COLUMBUS 35 63 36 65 / 0 0 5 0 GAINESVILLE 34 61 37 60 / 0 0 5 0 MACON 30 63 32 65 / 0 0 5 0 ROME 28 57 30 62 / 0 0 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 27 60 30 64 / 0 0 5 5 VIDALIA 37 66 39 67 / 0 0 5 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41/39 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...39 daculaweather
Posted on: Sun, 14 Dec 2014 02:42:38 +0000
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