FXUS62 KFFC 141852 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 152 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR DOOR STEP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AS A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY. TIMING WISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO NW GA MONDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE SE BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...GENERALLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL LOOKING AT ALMOST NEAR ZERO INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM...GFS MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 50 J/KG EARLY TUESDAY. WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS 30-40KTS IN THE NW. SO ALTHOUGH WE HAVE DECENT SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY ISNT THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE...SOMETHING TO WATCH TO SEE IF INSTABILITY INCREASES AT ALL. BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH BRINGING MOISTURE BACK WITH THE NEXT WAVE...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE MORE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH NEXT WEEKEND BEING A HIGH TRAVEL TIME...WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 11 FIRE WEATHER... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AOB 25 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS FOR THE AREA. MODEL DEWPOINTS TEND TO BE TOO HIGH...SO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD...IF DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP THE DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT ONLY EXPECTING BKN060 BY 21Z-23Z MON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN ON THE 00Z TAF AS FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NW AND TURN TO THE SW BY 18-20Z MON. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO VSBYS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 64 34 64 43 / 0 5 10 30 ATLANTA 62 37 63 49 / 0 5 10 50 BLAIRSVILLE 62 30 60 42 / 0 5 20 60 CARTERSVILLE 58 30 62 45 / 0 5 10 60 COLUMBUS 65 36 66 50 / 0 5 10 20 GAINESVILLE 63 37 64 44 / 0 5 10 50 MACON 65 32 65 43 / 0 5 10 20 ROME 59 30 60 43 / 0 5 20 50 PEACHTREE CITY 62 30 64 44 / 0 5 10 40 VIDALIA 68 39 66 44 / 0 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...01 daculaweather
Posted on: Sun, 14 Dec 2014 18:53:23 +0000
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