FXUS62 KFFC 242351 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 740 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STRETCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND DAMP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT AFD TIME. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND IS MORE OF A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS INCREASING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...HRRR HAS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ALL DAY BUT 12Z RUNS OF OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE CAUGHT UP...WITH ALL SHOWING CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS THE METRO AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT WITH DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REDUCTION IN SBCAPE VALUES...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP THEREAFTER. THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA OVERNIGHT BUT PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOG-PRONE AREAS. FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS VORTICITY ADVECTION DECREASES AND FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. POPS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT HAVE KEPT POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE...WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY UP IN NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT. TDP && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014/ MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP POPS TO A MINIMUM SATURDAY...AND WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY...HIGH WILL LOSE CONTROL OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL LARGELY DOMINATED BY THIS STRONG COLD FRONT /ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY/ AND MODELS AGREE WITH PUSHING IT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE MONDAY. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD AS BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA...AND HAVE GENERALLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A COMBINATION OF DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. 31 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GA. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...CSG AND MCN MAY BE AFFECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS MUCH OF TONIGHT BUT SOME SCT030/040 MAY LINGER. HAVE ADDED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE METRO ATL TAF SITES DUE TO RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR STORMS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 91 70 93 / 30 10 5 5 ATLANTA 71 87 72 90 / 30 10 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 62 84 60 86 / 20 10 5 10 CARTERSVILLE 68 88 69 91 / 20 5 5 5 COLUMBUS 73 89 73 92 / 30 30 5 10 GAINESVILLE 70 87 70 89 / 30 10 5 10 MACON 70 89 71 91 / 30 30 10 10 ROME 68 89 68 92 / 20 5 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 69 88 69 91 / 40 20 5 5 VIDALIA 73 92 73 93 / 30 30 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM....31/BAKER AVIATION...41
Posted on: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 23:52:08 +0000
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