FXUS62 KFFC 270800 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 300 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. 20 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. 17 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 5-12KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 12-16Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 14Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT THROUGH 22Z...DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 50 26 49 32 / 5 0 0 5 ATLANTA 47 27 48 36 / 5 0 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 43 24 47 30 / 20 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 48 25 49 30 / 10 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 53 29 54 35 / 5 0 0 5 GAINESVILLE 47 28 48 35 / 10 0 0 5 MACON 55 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 48 25 50 29 / 10 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 49 25 50 28 / 5 0 0 5 VIDALIA 57 33 54 35 / 0 0 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...20 daculaweather
Posted on: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 08:01:18 +0000
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