FXUS62 KMLB 020732 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 332 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES... TODAY-TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE GRADIENT WIND FLOW. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AND MAYBE UP TO 15 MPH WITH A SLIGHT SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT...KEEPING THE MOIST LAYER VERY SHALLOW. MAV POPS CAME IN AT 3 PERCENT IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AROUND OKEECHOBEE. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DIFFER FROM THIS MOS GUIDANCE AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WERE JUST A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE DRIER THAN NORMAL AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA...SO WILL NOT CARRY ANY RAIN CHANCES. THU-FRI... FCST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD T-WAVE OVER THE NW CARIB...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY IMPACT THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE ON THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE MINIMAL. A LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTENDING ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST THRU DAYBREAK FRI...NUDGED ALONG BY A STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES. ONCE OFFSHORE...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE AND BECOME THE NEW DOMINANT WRN ATLC RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS IN A POSITION TO DEFLECT THE T-WAVE INTO THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE...KEEPING IT MORE OR LESS AN OPEN FEATURE BEFORE PUSHING IT ONSHORE OVER THE NW GOMEX. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND DVLPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW ARND 1008MB WHILE DRIVING IT TOWARD THE W FL PANHANDLE. NEITHER SOLUTION BODES WELL FOR PRECIP IN CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF MAINTAINS A RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A N/NE BREEZE (ONE OF THE MOST CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE FLOW REGIMES FOR THE FL PENINSULA) AND WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WHILE TRACKING THE FEATURE CLOSER TO THE FL PENINSULA...WOULD ONLY PUT THE ERN PENINSULA UNDER ITS PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BLANKETING THE CWA UNDER A DENSE LAYER OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WOULD HINDER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. INDEED...GFS MODEL SOUNDING INCREASES PWAT VALUES FROM ARND 1.5" THURSDAY MORNING TO ARND 2.0" FRIDAY NIGHT... BUT DOES SO IN A "TOP-DOWN" PATTERN THAT SATURATES THE AIRMASS ABV H50 BUT LEAVES THE H85-H50 LYR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-10C. VERY WEAK PGRAD THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL PROMOTE EARLY FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY...SUGGESTING AN EAST-WEST POP DISTRIBUTION. SLGT CHC COASTAL ZONES THRU THE PD...SLGT CHC INTERIOR ON THU...CHC ON FRI AS THE DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG...MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG DUE TO THE INCREASING UPR LVL CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. SAT-TUE... FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIED TO THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE SAME BASIC WX FEATURES IN PLAY THRU THE WEEKEND: DEEP RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC AND TROFFING ALONG OR E OF THE LWR MS VALLEY...BUT DVLP THEM IN A MANNER THAT COULD RESULT IN RESPECTABLE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU THE WEEKEND (GFS) OR LEAVE MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNTOUCHED (ECMWF). WILL CAP PRECIP AOB 40PCT THRU THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THE T-WAVE WILL TAKE A DELAYED SWIPE AT CENTRAL FL...THEN DECREASING TO AOB 20PCT THRU THE END OF THE FCST AS THE T-WAVE IS ABSORBED BY THE NRN STREAM. NO SIG CHANGE IN THE SOURCE REGION...MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO AVG. && .AVIATION... THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRYING ALOFT OCCURRING...THE TERMINALS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR TODAY. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT... NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS LOOK TO BE 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. THU-SUN... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK SAT AS A WEAK CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND GENERATES A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE BREEZE...SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 8SEC. WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE BY SUNSET SAT AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE...ALLOWING THE LCL PGRAD TO TIGHTEN. PGRAD MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED THRU THE WEEKEND BY THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE OVER THE NW CARIB AS IT LIFTS INTO THE ERN GOMEX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINS WINDS TO EXCEED 20KTS...SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 69 86 73 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 88 70 89 72 / 10 10 20 20 MLB 85 71 86 74 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 86 71 87 73 / 10 10 20 10 LEE 88 69 89 72 / 10 10 20 20 SFB 87 70 89 72 / 10 10 10 20 ORL 88 71 89 73 / 10 10 20 20 FPR 85 72 87 73 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY LONG TERM...BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 07:32:37 +0000
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