FXUS62 KMLB 030822 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 322 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... ..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... ...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AT THE COAST... CURRENTLY...MID LVL CLOUD DECK SOUTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE TO TITUSVILLE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS INSISTS MID LVL CLOUDINESS WILL EXIT THE AREA OFF THE SE FL COAST LATER THIS MORNING OR AROUND MID DAY. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP FROM THE VILLAGES AND LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH UNDER THE MID LVL CLOUD DECK. TODAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME NNE/NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM OSCEOLA/INDIAN RIVER COUNTY NORTHWARD (EXCEPT LAKE COUNTY WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT STILL BREEZY). EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH AREA-WIDE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA TO THE UPPER 70S OSCEOLA/BREVARD TO AROUND 80/LWR 80S FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LONGSHORE SOUTHWARD FLOWING CURRENT AT THE BEACHES WITH ROUGH SURF DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ATLC WATER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S. TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE ATLC COAST STRENGTHENING THE LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NE. 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS BOTH INSISTENT ON A HEALTHY CONVERGENT SHOWER BAND DEVELOPING OFF THE BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COUNTY COAST AND MOVING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY MOST PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS THAT MAY PUSH INTO OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY WINDY ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 3 30 KNOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 50S NRN INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S TREASURE COAST BEACHES. MON-MON NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS LARGE EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NE COAST MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA PENINSULA RESULTING IN WINDY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IN PLACE DIRECTLY OVER HEAD...THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUFFICIENTLY MODIFY THE AIRMASS BELOW 850MB ON MONDAY FOR THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND COASTAL AREAS. WITH FLOW IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KTS...ITS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE WILL PUSH WELL INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER... ANY SUCH SHOWERS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL CAP VERTICAL MOTION BELOW 5-7KFT. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AROUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HOWEVER THE FLOW OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TUES-FRI...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA AROUND FRI WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS A SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...STARTING IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY WITH MID-UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COOLDOWN BY FRIDAY BACK TO A NEAR NORMAL UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE QUICK RETURN OF WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED INTO THU WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED MODERATE-LARGE EAST SWELLS. && .AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY BR AT KLEE/KDAB TO BECOME LESS PREVALENT TOWARD SUNRISE AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. STUBBORN MID LVL CLOUD DECK FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD SHOULD ADVECT SE LATER THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. INCREASING NNE WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FROM KVRB NWD ALONG THE COAST TO KDAB TODAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR CSTL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH SLGT CHC ONSHORE MOVING ATLC SHOWERS. && .MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS FORECAST AS NNE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON BY LATE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS FURTHER TO 9-10 FT IN GULF STREAM OFFSHORE. MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US THRU TUES BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL GENERATED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. WIND SPEEDS 20-25KTS MON AND TUES...SLOWLY WEAKENING TO 15-20KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND TUES. SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT IN THE GULFSTREAM. WHILE THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT DISRUPTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS. A PERSISTENT E/NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST FL COAST KEEPING SEAS 6-8FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE WED MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE LATE THU EVNG. && .FIRE WEATHER...LOW RH FROM 30-35 PERCENT...AND NNE WINDS TO 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL POSE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY. ERC VALUES HIGHEST AROUND METRO ORLANDO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL RAISE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND OSCEOLA. MIN RHS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL POSE A CONCERN FOR FIRE SPREAD TODAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 60 78 66 / 0 20 20 20 MCO 77 58 80 64 / 0 10 10 20 MLB 78 66 79 72 / 0 20 20 20 VRB 80 67 81 72 / 0 20 20 20 LEE 75 57 80 62 / 0 10 10 20 SFB 77 58 81 64 / 0 10 20 20 ORL 77 60 80 65 / 0 10 10 20 FPR 80 66 80 72 / 0 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA- NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 03 Nov 2013 08:23:11 +0000
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